Closing Time: Wait 'Til Next Year!
Seven Teams are Taking an Early Look at 2009 Closer Options
If you were paying attention last September, you saw Brian Wilson's audition for the Giants, and so it was no surprise to watch him break out as a top-five closer this season. Can we suss out next year's bullpen wunderkind from the moves teams make in August and September?
September is upon us, which means for a lot of teams, it's time to think about 2009, and nowhere is that more clear than in MLB bullpens. Today, we'll take a look at seven specific bullpen situations where a hot youngster is pushing hard enough to have a real chance at taking over in 2009. In some cases, the pressure is coming from two different players, adding an extra level of excitement and uncertainty.
As the season enters its final month, our overall attention will soon turn to September callups, as hundreds of players try to put on their best showcase work in the hopes of getting a big-league opportunity in 2009.
Less visibly, a number of teams (both contenders and not) have been tinkering with their bullpens, giving bigger and bigger roles to rookies and prime prospects, as they experiment to see whether their star children are ready for big time closer duty next season.
In Texas, Frank Francisco is getting the bulk of recent save opportunities, though he seems to be on a very short leash, with Joaquin Arias hot on his heels. Francisco, who was a 100mph prodigy for the Rangers a few years ago before having career-delaying Tommy John surgery, should be one of the best 'young' 30-year olds in any AL bullpen next season.
In Cinderella Tampa, veteran closer Troy Percival has had his season peppered by injury, and during those down spells Dan Wheeler has filled in admirably, most recently converting six of seven late-August save opportunities. The best pitcher in the Rays' pen, though, has been setup man Grant Balfour. DFA'd back in March, Balfour has been quietly dominant since receiving his second chance in the bigs. His 0.89 WHIP is the fifth-best in baseball, following four much bigger names (Rivera, Papelbon, Soria, Nathan) and leading the entire rest of the pack. Balfour's .131 batting average against, in fact, is the unmatched best in baseball, as is his eye-popping rate of 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings. For a player who didn't even make the depth chart in April, he's looking like a strong candidate for an expanded role, at least, in 2009.
In Colorado, lefthanded closer Brian Fuentes has been "almost" traded away so many times this year that he must have his bags permanently packed. Recently placed on waivers and then pulled back, he's still very likely to move before 2009's Spring Training, and last year's closer Manny Corpas is the best bet to re-take his job. First round pick Casey Weathers is also on the back of many Colorado minds, however. In AA Texas, Weathers has struck out 48 hitters in only 40 innings of work, posting a 1.43 ERA and raising many, many eyebrows. His walk rate is a bit high (27), but if Corpas can't do the job out of the gate next year, many will be calling for an early move to the young righthander.
In Cleveland, a city that's seen more bad relief pitching than any other this year, a light is slowly dawning. The formal solution has become a closer-by-committee, but a pattern has emerged over the last few weels. Young Jensen Lewis has been the go-to man in more ninth innings. Oddly, though, he's not even the best pitcher in that bullpen: lefthander Rafael Perez has been used in more high-leverage, game-breaking 7th and 8th inning situations over the last month, and owns the better numbers. Both pitchers have WHIPs under 1.00, but Perez's 25 strikeouts in 15 innings is exemplary, and that's without even considering that he's been consistently handed the tougher assignments. And lest we forget, the Indians cleverly stashed away Broxton clone Jon Meloan as loot from their trade of Casey Blake, which means their bullpen options for 2009 are looking mighty rosey indeed.
Attention in Anaheim is rightfully focused on super-closer Franscisco Rodriguez and his twin quest for the single-season saves record and a new free agent dollar record for relief pitchers. Behind him, though, rookie Jose Arredondo has been almost as impressive in a setup role (1.18, 1.03 WHIP, 39K in 45 innings), and with a list price two zeroes shy of K-Rod's, he must be at least a tempting choice, should the Angels elect to let Franky walk to riches in the offseason.
In Oakland, the dynamic duo of Brad Ziegler and ex-Brave Joey Devine has been eclipsing stalwart young closer Huston Street, who's been stumbling all summer, and former closer-in-waiting Santiago Casilla. Ziegler's scoreless innings streak (a new rookie record) and Devine's perfect 0.00 ERA since July (his WHIP is 0.50) are making Street look very expendable this winter. The Yankees, sniffing around for a long-term replacement for aging Mariano Rivera, might look at Street if they're unable to lure Francisco Rodriguez from Anaheim. Devine, if he can hold things together, has the best chance at becoming the new Oakland closer for 2009, so fantasy players may wish to stash him away now with that in mind.
In that vein, though, the creme of the late summer crop has to St Louis proto-closer Chris Perez, who's seized the 9th inning role following the injury that could end Jason Isringhausen's career. Perez is 6-for-6 in save opportunities since debuting in the role at the beginning of August, with 12 strikeouts and 4 walks in 9.2 innings of work. Unless he suffers a major implosion or injury, he seems likely to enter 2009 as the Cardinals' bullpen anchor, and if his workload stays under the status threshold for September, he'll have rookie of the year potential.
How many of these young guns will earn the trust of their teams for 2009? It's hard to say for sure, but it seems likely that at least a few new closers will be on top of our list next spring.
Speaking of our list, be sure to keep up on the ever-shifting business of Who's Closing Where by bookmarking our always-current Closer Watch page.
