3/25/2008

Top Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Sleeping with Giants, the Blue Jays Can Still Compete

For most of the last decade, the Blue Jays have seemed to be a team that was trying to play for an immediate this-year championship... but not working with the resources needed to get there. This year's team, heavy with expensive veterans, looks much the same, but there are some young guns and farm-hands ready to contribute very soon, and some of last year's rookies are poised to be solid players in 2008. If the Jays can skillfully mix their vets with some youth and talent, they could break through into the AL East's playoff club, but it'll be a tough fight.

Catcher JP Arencibia is one of the hottest Blue Jay hitting prospects, but the overall lookout is not good.

From their start in 1976, Toronto has been a team that spent large and played large, paying top dollar for the most premium free agents they could get rather than taking a slow and patient approach to the game.

Their guns-out strategy worked well, and for a time in the 80's and 90's, the Jays were one of baseball's best teams. When their stars declined, though, they failed to refresh them completely, and the team slid into irrelevance. With a weak farm to support them, it's been hard for the Jays to climb back out of their hole, though they're doing it, slowly and surely. Today they're the third-best team in their division, looking up at only (gulp) the Yankees and Red Sox day after day. Their lack of good drafts hasn't helped them prepare for a better future either: they have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball today, with less talent to draw from than anyone in the AL. Even the depleted White Sox look stronger by comparison.

The current shortage of top quality prospects, though, hasn't always been the way of things in Toronto. In addition to regular-guy players like Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, the aforementioned Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan came from within their system, as did Cy Young winner Roy Halladay, who's never played for any other team. Imagine if Toronto had hung onto their 1993 first-rounder, Chris Carpenter, to go along with Halladay.

Some of the team's current bats also came from their own draft picks, including outfielders Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, but few can forgive the Jays for passing over Troy Tulowitzki (2005) and not securing shortstop Michael Young (fourth round, 1997).

In all, the Jays hit-and-miss approach to drafting and development shows their preference for the free agent market, where prices are high but quality is known.

The problem, of course, is that they can't ever hope to outspend Boston or New York, and with the way those two teams have grown their own top-notch farm systems to fill weaknesses in the last decade, it's very hard to see Toronto reaching higher than third place for the next while.

To see what the farm still has to offer, check out our list of Best Blue Jays Prospects for 2008.