Many Prospects for One Big Pitcher
CC is Traded, We Survey the Prospects Included
Cleveland? Hmm... maybe I can rent a trailer... Outfielder Matt LaPorta is the biggest prospect name in the blockbuster trade that will send ace CC Sabathia to Milwaukee. Like the Indians, the slugger will have a lot to think about in the days to come.
2008 is just entering those days when teams decide whether they're real competitors and become either buyers or sellers. The Milwaukee Brewers have made the biggest splash early by announcing the trade of four prospects to the Indians for pending free agent CC Sabathia. Everyone knows what CC represents, but since this is Scouting Book, we'll focus on the prospects who are on their way to Cleveland, and what they could mean to the Indians in the near future.
Late Sunday, the Indians and Brewers closed a deal that had been in the making for the last week or so. The Brewers receive ace lefthander CC Sabathia for the rest of the season, while the Indians restock their farm system with some very high-level prospects.
Sabathia in the National League will be fun to watch. While he won't necessarily dominate (think of the down season that fellow lefty Johan Santana is having in New York), and his complete games probably won't be as frequent as they were in the AL, fans will certainly enjoy watching the big guy hit. Like Santana, he's always been a good hitter, though few have seen it yet.
Milwaukee is obviously going for broke this year, with a Cinderella post-season in their sights. And with Sabathia and Sheets on hand, they have the devastating 1-2 punch that the best September teams always seem to feature, and a better looking playoff rotation than the rival Cubs or Cardinals will be able to assemble.
Unless Sabathia becomes somehow enamored with Milwaukee, though (the beer is good, to be fair), he's almost certainly a three month rental for the Brew Crew, who will be unlikely to have the budget required to sign the pitcher long-term after his current contract expires at the end of the year. So for a three-month rental of one of baseball's best starters (plus a nice first round compensation pick in 2009's draft) what did the Brewers give up?
A lot, as it turns out, though they could afford it.
Matt LaPorta is the top prize in the trade, and one that other suitors were probably hard-pressed to match. A right-handed power hitter who can play first base or either outfield position, LaPorta is near Major League ready but was blocked by superior talent on almost every side as a Brewer (Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart) and was even receiving pressure from below (Mat Gamel), so this trade should open up his horizons pretty wide.
In Cleveland, third base is probably unavailable to LaPorta, but he should have little trouble outplaying both veterans David Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez in left, or youngsters Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo in right. He'll be in Cleveland before the year is up, and if the Indians are willing to suffer through some bad numbers, maybe even in the next few weeks.
LaPorta's early-career plate discipline has been evaporating and his strikeout rate rising, so there's some good reason to temper expectations. The book on him is pretty well-known, so he won't dominate in the big leagues right away (though he could feast on bad or underprepared pitching the first time around the league). As he learns some of the finer points of hitting, though, he could blossom into a top twenty outfielder as early as 2011. He's a great piece for the Indians to add to their rebuild, as he's a better prospect than other suitors could have offered, and he's much closer to ready than anyone they could expect as draft compensation if they simply let Sabathia walk.
Pitcher Zach Jackson, the second player included, is a onetime first round draft pick who's fallen under the radar lately. A lefty pitcher who was once among the Blue Jays' best pitching prospects, he's declined a bit in the last two years. The Indians probably found the notion of a near-MLB-ready lefthanded reliever who can also start pretty enticing. Since the Indians are in full-on rebuilding mode now, and lack bullpen depth, he might see some late-season action, if only to evaluate his readiness for big league pitching. A change of scenery and a new coaching staff could be just what he needs to restore his former luster.
Also included were pitcher Rob Bryson, who's a bit too far away to project, but has looked very good so far this season striking out 57 batters in only 45 innings to date. A onetime starter, he was being groomed as a late-inning pitcher by the Brewers, which means he could very well be the long-term solution for the closer-less Indians come 2010 or so. If so, this was a very crafty selection by Cleveland, since next year's draft is looking thin in college closers.
Also included will be a fourth player to be named later. The odds are high that this player will be an infielder, either minor league Player of the Year Taylor Green or the high-ceiling shortstop Brent Brewer, who would presumably be required to change his legal name as part of any pending deal.
Despite paying so much, the farm-rich Brewers managed to hold on to their two best prospects, in that third baseman Matt Gamel and shortstop Alcides Escobar remain with the club. Both players are better rounded prospects than LaPorta, and they've both outhit LaPorta in the minors this year, which probably helped make the decision easier on the Milwaukee side. Assuming neither is a surprise last-minute addition to the trade package, each receives a boost in value, since the field of minor leaguers competing for their jobs in Milwaukee has been thinned somewhat, and the Brewers have shown that they value both very highly.
On balance, this is a ballsy move for the Brewers, a .500 ballclub in a tough division. The second half should be a great three-way fight between the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers in the central, with Milwaukee suddenly boasting the best rotation of the bunch. Assuming they don't find oil in Wisconsin, Sabathia's free agency will also give the Brewers a free first round pick in next year's draft, with which they can try to find their next LaPorta.
For Cleveland, this trade infuses a lot of high-ceiling talent into their system just when they need it most. LaPorta will be an everyday player next season, Bryson could be the Indians closer come 2010. Jackson, whether he's stretched back out to start or refined as a left-handed setup artist, is a solid pitcher who should keep improving. Those three players make this a good trade; any fourth PTBNL added later will only be gravy for the Indians.
Combined, this is far more than Cleveland could have gained as compensation draft picks if they'd simply let Sabathia walk. Suddenly, the Indians farm system looks a whole lot better than it did yesterday.
