3/30/2008

Last Minute Fantasy Draft Bargains

Hot and Cold Starts Throw Wrenches into Fantasy Planning

If you're a fantasy baseball player drafting this weekend, you've probably already digested all of the websites, mock drafts, ADP lists and strategy guides you could find. But how much attention have you paid to when that information was published? Have you considered that a lot of early spring advice might already be out of date?

In the spirit of our prospect rankings (which are already updated every day), here's a position by position overview of which rookies, prospects and youngsters have looked the best and the worst this spring.

Some guides might list San Diego slugger Chase Headley at third base, but don't be fooled: Headley is an outfielder, and one to consider entering 2008.

Like all the best information, this information expires soon, so stay sharp!

Catcher

A lot of people are high on Chicago rookie catcher Geovany Soto this year, and for a good reason: the young Cub lit up the minors and the majors alike last season, and he's been handed the opening day job. But buyer beware: the "can't miss" catching prospect hit only .194 in 22 spring training games over the past month, with only one home run. He's still a great young catching prospect, but don't break the bank for him, and don't count on him as your only catcher.

Another catcher to knock down a few pegs is young Texas slugger Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who as of last week has lost the starting job to Gerald Laird (who in turn deserves to be bumped up everyone's list a few notches). Saltalamacchia will play every day in AAA while waiting for Laird to stumble or for Texas to consider him as a 1B or DH.

Who looks better than expected? Young Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies fireplug, has raked all spring to a .348/.396/.522 clip, and Dioner Navarro, a prospect darling a couple of years ago, spent the month mashing every pitch he saw.

First Base

Last year's rookie darling at first base, James Loney, has been lukewarm all spring, hitting only .267 with a single homer, but this year's top-ranked first base prospect has been even worse. Cincinatti's Joey Votto, who was widely expected to open the season in the Reds lineup, has played his way to a .206 average, and right down to the minors. Creaky old Scott Hatteberg looks to have won his job, at least for now. We expect Votto to be up and hitting again before midseason, though, so don't write him off completely.

In Oakland, young Dan Johson and even-younger Brian Barton were expected to battle for the first base assignment, but neither has seemed very interested in winning a job. Johnson hit a frighteningly bad .160 during March, while Barton matched him whiff for whiff, posting a "much better" .176. Both of them must have been swinging very hard, though: Of Johson's seven hits, three were homers, while three of Barton's six hits went out of the yard.

Both were blown out of the water, though, by last year's feel-good rookie, Yankee first baseman Shelley Duncan. Duncan picked up in March where he left off last year, posting a .354 average and hitting three homers. Of course, this was also the spring that Jason Giambi remembered how to hit, so Duncan's probably looking at a platoon role in the Bronx.

Second Base

The best-hitting second baseman in March? Why, Aaron Hill, of course. Hill, usually a slapper, raked to a .447 average this spring, raising more than a few eyebrows and making him a legitimate late-round fantasy pick for gamblers.

Ian Kinsler, who most of Texas has been waiting on for three years running, put together a strong showing in spring too, hitting .422 and slugging .563. He looks like he'll open the season in the big leagues and could be a big part of a resurgent Rangers offense this year.

Other young second basemen who looked great this spring: Angel Howie Kendrick (.382), who some expect to vie for a batting title this year, Cleveland's Asdrubel Cabrera (.321) and Chicago's Juan Uribe, who seems to have knocked sleeper Alexei Ramirez to the White Sox outfield (see below) with his .356/.397/.542 spring showcase.

Disappointments at second this spring include Brandon Wood (again), Arizona's Emilio Bonifacio (needs more pop), the Angels Sean Rodriguez (.174) and San Diego's Matt Antonelli (.143). None of these players are expected to make their major league clubs in April.

Third Base

There are more hot young players at third these days than any other position, but you wouldn't know it from spring training.

Other than the Dodgers' Adam LaRoche, who was hitting .350 before breaking his finger, none of the young titans were very stand-up. LaRoche will be back in early May, when he'll probably still replace Nomar Garciaparra the way he was expected to do by opening day, but don't expect to see him until then.

Some of last year's 3B phenoms who bombed look like they might bounce back this season, though. KC's Alex Gordon, for example, is looking to redeem himself after a horrible rookie season. This year he looks a bit more patient at the plate, and he's turned in a nice March average of .313. Kevin Kouzmanonff, who followed up an awful first half of 2007 with an outstanding late season, seems to have the good kind of momentum going forward, as his .298/.353/.574 line was among the best Padre productions of the spring.

Shortstop

The best young shortstops in spring this year were no surprise: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes look like they're ready to rumble.

Last year's surprise producer in Chicago, Ryan Theriot, also refuses to admit he's mediocre. He just finished hitting .329 in March and swiped six bases, despite missing time to illness.

Another fill-in with upside, Jeff Keppinger, will get an extended time alone in Cincinnati's shortstop hole to start the year. He's worth a look, too. He destroyed spring pitching to a .407 tune in March.

Atlanta's new shortstop, rookie Yunel Escobar, cranked out a .361 average and a pair of homers, looking like a fine replacement for the departed Edgar Renteria.

Speaking of Cuban shortstops, Seattle's Yuniesky Betancourt looks ready to take the next step, too, as his .294/.333/.456 line is just what the Mariners want to see from the young hitter.

Finally, San Diego's deliciously-named Callix Crabbe might be ready sooner rather than later to take over at second base: his .309 average this spring was backed up by solid defense and a nice show of speed on the bases.

Outfield

The most impressive outfielder in baseball this spring isn't even listed as an outfielder in most pre-season guides. Chicago's Cuban Missile, Alexei Ramirez, saw spring action at shortstop, third base, second base and in the outfield this spring. The results were better than the Sox dared hope for. Ramirez's .358/.375/.582 performance (with nine extra base hits) means that X-Ram will play his very first professional game in America at the major league level. He'll be starting in center field and batting sixth for Ozzie's White Sox on opening day. He seems to have the talent, drive and hunger to stay there for awhile, too.

Seattle's Mike Morse, another converted shortstop, was one of baseball's best spring hitters, flirting with a .500 average for most of March before landing at .492. Morse, who outgrew the infield through a mix of natural and artificial methods, doesn't have tremendous power or speed, but if he can hold down right field and contribute a high average, he could provide a great mix of runs scored and driven in for Seattle.

Speaking of forgotten ex-prospects, St Louis's Scott Schumaker doesn't get much respect, but his skills with the stick (a .394 average in 23 games) deserve some attention. Likewise, consider Tony Gwynn Jr., who seems to be taking on a bit more of the family business with his .382 average in March.

Other young bats who look ready for the bigs and primed for hot starts: Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Franklin Gutierrez, Andre Ethier, Ben Francisco, and Rich Ankiel, all of whom hit .350 or better in the spring.

New York's Fernando Martinez probably won't be in Shea this year, but he's sure trying to get there, hitting .340 in March. Ex Cub Angel Pagan should beat him, though, as his .329 performance pretty much ensures he'll be the temporary fill-in for injured Met Moises Alou in left field.

The prospect that replaced Pagan back in Wrigley, on the other hand, also had a great spring, despite losing time to a painful personal entanglement. Once he straightened out his stuff, Felix Pie impressed the Cubs with a .338 average, a pair of homers, and three steals in only 22 starts.

Chase Headley and rookie-of-the-year Ryan Braun, two converted third basemen who are finding new legs in the outfield, also looked very good this spring. Don't let their position change lead you to overlook them!

Of course, some highly-touted outfield prospects used March to prove that they're not quite ready for the bigs. If you're thinking about drafting Sam Fuld (.161), Austin Jackson (.111), Mitch Maier (.176) or Brandon Jones (.211), we respectfully suggest you leave them for next season instead.

Even superprospect Cameron Maybin, who's still likely to see very regular time in the Florida outfield this season, could only muster an ugly .190 average this spring, though he did show some power with three homers in only 16 games.

Spring training games might not "count" in your league, but if you ignore the prospects who look hottest or sign some of those who are flailing, you'll be missing out on a lot of untapped gold.

Tomorrow, we'll have a look at Last Minute Bargains, Part 2: Pitchers.

Stay tuned!