3/9/2010

Disaster in Minnesota?

Five Backups to Nathan, Plus One Sleeper Candidate

On Tuesday, the worst possible news for Twins fans of all ages came down the pipe: superstar closer Joe Nathan has a torn elbow ligament, and will miss significant time. As a 35 year old with few years remaining in pro ball, he may try to pitch with the tear rather than lose 18 months on Tommy John surgery to replace and reattach the ligament, but whatever route he chooses, the Twins bullpen situation just got a lot less stable. If Nathan is out for a month or a year, who are the candidates to replace him, and which is the best bet?
   

There are stopgap choices, but is this man the real future of the Twins bullpen? If so, could the future be soon?

Minnesota has a strong bullpen, but one that lacks an obvious step-up candidate. What the team does have is a luxury in disguise: at least five pitchers (and a sixth sleeper) who all find themselves on a sudden short list of potential Twin saviors for 2010. While the team has not rule out using onetime phenom Francisco Liriano as a part-time closer, it's much more likely that an existing reliever will step into the role.

Jon Rauch, who came to the Twins after stints in Washington and Arizona, is the most experienced hand available, and he should be on top of most depth charts right about now. A 6-foot-10 tattooed behemoth, Rauch looks every bit the mercenary who chewed up batters in both leagues last year. In his career, Rauch has notched 26 saves, more than any other closer candidate on this list, and compiled a nice 1.23 WHIP and acceptable 3.79 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio is a steady 3:1, and he definitely has a closer's mentality. He should be the early favorite here, but there's no doubt the Twins will try to do better.

Jose Mijares, who entered 2009 as the primary setup man in Minnesota, is a lefthanded craftsman who was one of the team's top prospects just a season ago. Just 26 years old, Mijares was settling into a full season as one of baseball's rising setup men before Nathan's injury knocked his future for a loop. An unhittable phenom in 2008, he came down to earth a bit in 2009, though he still registered an impressive 2.34 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 62 innings. If you go by stats alone, he's the obvious choice to fill in or take over for Nathan, but his status as the only lefty in the Minnesota bullpen makes such an ascension unlikely right now. It's far more likely that a righthander will leapfrog him, leaving him to spot duty in the seventh and eighth innings when a lefty-heavy lineup is looming. If the Twins move to acquire additional lefty help in their bullpen in the weeks to come, consider it a vote of confidence in Mijares's ability to graduate to the ninth inning.

Jesse Crain is a five year veteran of Minnesota baseball, and in his young career he's rung up a 3.50 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 314 innings. He's always been a bit wild, but his stuff is good enough that he has been able to step in and blow lesser hitters away when called upon. His experience as a Twin makes him a reasonable bet, but even if he takes over the role full time on the strength of a strong spring, he won't ever be among the league's best closers: his walk and contact rates are a bit too high for steady, easy breathing.

Matt Guerrier is another longtime Twin who has been slowly stepping his way up the ladder, culminating in a 2009 role as Nathan's primary setup man when former setup artist Pat Neshek was knocked out of baseball. Years before moving to the Twin Cities, he rung up 38 career saves as a closer in rookie and A-ball. His numbers last year were stellar, making his name pop out in shallow analysis, but his career numbers are almost indistinguishable from those of Crain or Rauch: 1.27 WHIP, 3.41 ERA, and 268 strikeouts in 401 major league innings. Like Crain, he walks too many batters, but he has shown the mental fortitude to work through trouble, and he was bound to see opportunities in 2010 while spelling Nathan on occasion. He should be given every chance to win the job now that Nathan is shelved.

The aforementioned Pat Neshek, of course, isn't just everyone's favorite Twins blogger, he's a dark horse candidate to step up in 2010 and take over closer duties. While he's a bit of a high-risk candidate, his chances should not be discounted. Neshek, who's seemed to be on the cusp of stardom for a decade, turns 30 this season after missing all of 2009 recovering from surgery. In three years of duty in the Twins bullpen before that, he rung up a shiny 2.91 ERA and scintillating 0.96 WHIP, but he looked weaker in his last year of action (4.73, 1.20) and questions remain about how much arm strength he's recovered. While the Twins would like to see him step up and take on the job, he might not be in full form and ready to do so until 2011.

If Neshek's not sleeper enough for you, consider Carlos Gutierrez, the preeminent Twins relief prospect now that Mijares has graduated to the majors. Gutierrez was a lights-out closer the University of Miami before being drafted by the Twins in 2008, and while they have stated that they'd prefer him as a starter, there's no denying the damage he can do in short work: in 39 relief innings as a Hurricane in 2008, Gutierrez racked up an ungodly seventy-two strikeouts against only twenty walks. He's widely seen as a year away from MLB-readiness, but if the Twins continue to struggle for a long-term solution at midseason, he's going to look awfully attractive down there in New Britain.

But no matter what, Gutierrez won't break camp as the Twins closer, so of the choices are limited to who will be realistically ready, what's the best course of action? It comes down to trust. Neshek is nastiest, and a favorite of Twins fans, but he's also the most delicate. Rauch is the more solid and experienced arm, though a less-lively one, with the other three options all providing their own upsides and downsides. Right now, this looks like Rauch's job to lose out of the gate.

Of course, the Twins have three weeks left to examine possible solutions in spring training, too, hoping that one of these pitchers will step up out of the pack and blow away concerns about their individual downsides. If nobody steps up, or if the first choice stumbles early, 2010 could be a mix and match season in Minnesota, as manager Ron Gardenhire is not afraid to employ a Bobby Cox-ish 'twin closers' setup.

In such a plan, both Mijares and one of the righthanders would assume co-closer duties, and be used according to the lefty-righty situation of each and every ninth inning.

While statheads and fantasy buffs are understandably stressed out at the loss of Nathan and the cloud of confusion that roil over succession plans, real-world Minnesota fans should relax: the collection of arms above are all capable closers, which means no matter who 'wins' the job, the Twinkies will continue to have one of the strongest overall bullpens in the American League.

Yes, even without Super Joe Nathan.

 

To keep up on the Twins' situation, and other closer struggles throughout MLB, remember to bookmark our Closer Watch page (or just remember www.closerwatch.com), which is updated daily.

[ BallGrrrl helped KDaddy with this quick report. ]

   

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