5/19/2008

Prospects on Deck

Who Will Get the Next Phone Call?

Six weeks into the season, some of baseball's hottest prospects are already seeing major league action. But some of the most promising haven't seen the big leagues yet. Who's next, and when will they get their chance in The Big Show?

He might be the Cardinal center-fielder of the future, but proto-slugger Colby Rasmus has been stumbling so far this year, delaying any possible promotion.

Some of our favorite preseason prospects, like Joey Votto, Joba Chamberlain, Jair Jurrjens and Johnny Cueto are already burning up the majors, and you'd have to be living in a cave to not know about their exploits. The Cubs, in fact, are enjoying the benefits of two early rookie of the year candidates (the home-grown Geo Soto and the imported Kosuke Fukudome) on the same roster. Others, like Boston speedster Jacoby Ellsbury and Dodger import Hiroki Kuroda have been solid contributors but haven't yet shown their real potential.

Some of our other top prospects, like Tampa super-hitter Evan Longoria, Mariner catcher Jeff Clement and Anaheim pitcher Nick Adenhart, are just now tasting the big-league waters. They may see a mix of major or minor league time the rest of the way out.

But who's next? Which super prospects will be the next ones to get a shot with their big league teams? Here's a look at some of our special favorites.

Los Angeles phenom Clay Kershaw, who many expected to see in the majors already, has been navigating a bumpy road in AA so far. Pitching for Jacksonville in the Southern League, Kershaw's yet to win a game (he's 0-4 in seven starts), though the lefty with the hammer curve has struck out 40 in 36 innings and hasn't yet given up a home run. The Dodgers reversed course on bringing Kershaw up for a double-header spot-start last week, but he'll probably get another shot a little bit later. In the mean time, the Dodgers are encouraging him to work on his third and fourth pitches.

Washington's Ross Detwiler, another lefthander known for his incredible stuff but slim experience, is also floundering a bit this spring, stumbling to a 2-2 record and a 4.45 ERA in seven starts. While Detwiler's raw stuff looks as frightening as ever, he's been having uncharacteristic problems with command. He'll need to straighten himself out if he's going to join the Nationals' rotation at midseason, as expected.

On the hitting side of the game, Anaheim shortstop Brandon Wood has been a top-ten sort of prospect for many years now, but a pattern is evolving. Wood has torn up the minor leagues for three straight seasons, but he's also looked awful in three different chances with the Major League Angels. Some scouts think it's too easy to fool Wood with breaking balls, while others report that he's suffering from nothing more than performance anxiety. Whatever the problem is, Wood's not going to get many more chances to figure it out... at least not in an Angels uniform. Wood is high on the list of candidates for a deadline trade to a team that's willing to give him another shot. Fresh surroundings might be all the former batting champ needs to break out.

The other west-coast slugger, Dodger Andy LaRoche, is recovering from a broken finger he suffered in April. Currently rehabbing back in AAA Las Vegas, LaRoche seems to have picked up right where he left off in spring training, coming out hot and contending for the Dodgers' starting third base job. He's hit four home runs in the last two weeks, but most impressively, he's struck out only three times while collecting sixteen walks. LaRoche is already seen as the biggest power bat in the minor leagues, and if he can keep even a fraction of that kind of discipline in the majors, he's going to absolutely devour the league's weaker pitching once he gets back to L.A. While new Dodger coach Torre is known to prefer older players, it shouldn't take much for LaRoche to displace perennial disappointment Nomar Garciaparra, and once LaRoche gets entrenched, he won't be leaving L.A.'s hot corner for many, many years.

One future masher who's not been living up to expectations is Cardinal centerfielder of the future Colby Rasmus. The young hitter, who provides a tantalizing mix of speed and power, is floundering badly in his first look at AAA pitching at Memphis. While he does have six homers in 150 at-bats, the future of the franchise doesn't have much else going for him, with an embarassing .195 batting average and horrific .282 on-base percentage after seven weeks of full-time action. He's going to need to improve -- a lot -- if he hopes to see the major leagues this year. It's worth watching the rest of his minor league year to see if he can recapture the discipline that helped him hit a much more respectable .275 at lower-level Springfield last season. But it's more likely that this season is already a writeoff, and while he might get a feel-good callup in September, it's most likely that Rasmus will again be asked to compete for a starting gig next spring. His enormous offensive upside earns him some patience, after all.

Speaking of monster bats, Cincinnati uber-prospect Jay Bruce should probably already be in the majors. It was a bit of a surprise that MiLB's Player of the Year didn't make the team out of spring training, but with the inscrutable Dusty Baker in charge, Ryan Freel and even Corey Patterson took his turns away. Since Patterson is hitting .227 while Bruce is shredding AAA pitching to the tune of .352/.378/.613, with seven homers in his first 36 games, this should be an easy call, but Bruce is still simmering in the minors at the time of this article. He's a long term corner outfielder, but his obvious home for the next couple of years is centerfield, and he'd be an upgrade over the Reds' other options right now. He has the speed (seven steals this year) and arm to do it, too. If Bruce isn't playing in Cincinnati by this time next month, expect Dusty Baker to have a price on his head.

Minor League Baseball's other Player of the Year, pirate corner-man Steven Pearce is biding his time and keeping himself busy in AAA Indianapolis. While Pearce hasn't been matching last year's .320 clip, but he does have 5 homers in 40 games. He might get some fill-in starts in Pittsburgh soon, but he's really waiting for a trade or injury to open a full-time path. If the Pirates move or lose Xavier Nady, Jason Bay or Adam LaRoche, Pearce will be packing his bags within minutes. He can handle either corner outfield spot or first base (the preferred position), and once he gets a significant series of at-bats, he should stick in the Pirates lineup.

Speaking of Pittsburgh and pending fire sales, center-field candidate Andrew McCutchen, one of the most coveted young bats in any system, is putting his work in at AAA Indianapolis. The five-tool future star has been shaky on the bases (he has 11 steals but has also been caught five times), but solid in the field and at the plate. His .284/.359/.426 line is exactly what the Pirates need in a leadoff hitter. If the Pirates gut their major league club at the deadline (as is widely expected), McCutchen could follow Steve Pearce (above) to Pirate-town. Watch for him to get a shot around the All-Star break, or soon thereafter.

A little further out, there's Baltimore's catcher of the future, the offensive-minded backstop Matt Wieters. Wieters is one of the brightest stars in the minors this spring. Playing in high-A Carolina, Wieters is hitting a scalding .335 with eight home runs in only thirty-five games. He's two promotions away from Baltimore, but considering the rebuilding happening in Oriole land, he could be on an elevator to the big leagues for September, giving him a head start on learning to handle Baltimore's pitchers for next season. This is how rookie of the year candidate Geovany Soto was broken in with the Cubs, remember.

We'll keep checking in on these future stars, and other from our top 50 or so, as the season grinds on. Stay tuned.