Top Baseball Prospects for 2012
Now updated for 2012's Top Prospects
Scouting Book's Top Prospects list is a Combined List, a calculated summary of the overall valuations of the entire prospect universe.
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A superior athlete with a centerfielder's speed and instincts, Mike Trout looks ready for a bright future patrolling Torii Hunter's turf. A patient hitter with a line drive stroke to all fields, he has a mature understanding of the strike zone and an ability to work it. His excellent speed and baserunning sense is ready right now, and his power seems to be arriving as hoped. Of course, the Angels may have exhausted poor Trout when they shipped him to AFL play after a minor league season that was already exhausting, and that's not even counting the 40 games he played in Anaheim. Ignore the uncharacteristic .220 he showed during his time in MLB: when he returns in 2012, it'll be with all his ability intact, and he won't return to the minors again.
Full Scouting Report for Mike Trout
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He's six foot five with a 95mph fastball and he's... Japanese? Well, half-Japanese, at least. Darvish, the Japanese/Iranian wunderkind who's half baseball star and half sex symbol, is Japan's best young pitcher, and his upside is high enough that more than one team felt comfortable giving him a $60M contract, and that's only after spending another $50M for the right to even speak to him in the first place. MLB players who've faced him or played beside him call him one of the best pitchers they've ever seen. His most recent manager calls him 'the best pitcher in the history of Japanese baseball.' And ex-manager Trey Hillman has said that if it was possible, Darvish would be worth 'the rosters of a couple of major league teams' in a fair-value trade. (Then again, Hillman also said that Darvish's rock star cool was like 'Fonzie and Elvis, both at the same time.' so maybe he was having a little too much Sapporo.)
Full Scouting Report for Yu Darvish
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How many scary-good pitching prospects does any franchise need? If you're Tampa Bay, the answer appears to be 'all of them', and lefty Matt Moore fits right in with that master plan. Moore works with easy 93mph heat that has been clocked as high as 96, but it's the plus curve that makes hitters look foolish. Even his third and least mature pitch, a fading change, is much better developed than any changeup minor leaguers hitters are accustomed to dealing with. The Rays don't usually push their prospects very hard, but after last fall's performance and a strong spring, he'll break camp with the team. While he's likely to start at the back of the rotation, he should be at least the team's second-best starter moving forward.
Full Scouting Report for Matt Moore
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When news broke that the Mariners had traded the 'untouchable' Michael Pineda to the Yankees, you didn't need to read the rest of the story to know which New York prospect simply had to be coming back to Seattle: there was only one worth such a high price. Universally regarded as the best available international free agent of his class, Jesus Montero was signed by the Yankees in the summer of 2006, instantly becoming New York's best catching (and hitting) prospect. While some wanted to see him move to first base or a corner outfield spot, the Yankees continued to develop his receiving and game-calling ability with receiving in mind. At 6-4 and 230 (and still growing), Montero's definitely got the muscle for the American League. According to a Yankee scout, when he first arrived in the USA, Montero 'looked like Travis Hafner already, at age 16.' In Seattle, he takes over as the team's best offensive catcher, best DH, best power hitter and maybe best hitter overall... immediately. Most scouts peg his power rating as top of the scale, so it's only a matter of how long it'll take for the rest of his tools to develop. He should leave camp as a starter on the 2012 Mariners, and assuming he does that, he won't see the minors again. He's an excellent ROY candidate.
Full Scouting Report for Jesus Montero
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The Cardinals first round pick in 2009, pitcher Shelby Miller is a raw but talented prospect with a wicked-hot fastball that has excellent and natural late movement. He's learning to rely on more than just his admittedly-great heat to excel in pro ball, too, so it's not surprising to see his nifty 12-6 curve frustrate batters. More exciting is the extra sink he's starting to trust on the less-explosive two-seam version of his fastball, a pitch that even good hitters will beat into the ground with abandon. With a projectable body that could probably add muscle in the years to come, he looks like a good workhorse candidate in St. Louis come late 2013 or so, though he'll probably get a look-see a bit sooner than that.
Full Scouting Report for Shelby Miller
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The fourth overall pick in the draft, righthander Trevor Bauer was overshadowed by rotation mate Gerrit Cole while at UCLA, but after turning pro he became one of the most impressive young arms anywhere in the minors, and he's a hotter ticket in our book than even Cole is today. After blowing past high-A ball last year, he found his level in AA, though he still struck out an ungodly 14 batters per nine innings even at the higher level (hey, it's more sane than the 17-per-nine he racked up in A ball.) Bauer is a smallish pitcher, with a bit of an unconventional motion, but his quirks are not the flaky flamethrower type, they're more of a dazzling bag-of-tricks variety. While he can reach 100mph if he wishes (we promise), he doesn't actually pitch there, prefering to stay down around 94mph with great and varying movement on his selection of sliders and cutters. He's also got a good head for the game and shows an Ichiro-level commitment to stretching and conditioning exercise. It's possible he will break camp with the Diamondbacks, but with the team not hurting for starters just yet, it's possible that his real prime time won't be until midseason or even 2013.
Full Scouting Report for Trevor Bauer
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A two-way player and 2004 Little League star who most preferred as a pitcher, righthander Jurickson Profar was signed as an international free agent in 2009. At the time, the teen was blessed with a 94mph heater and a slider that could have matured into a real plus pitch, but the Rangers were determined to make a shortstop out of him, and so far it's paying off. A full season off the mound later and he's showing off every tool in the box, including a ridiculously-advanced batting eye for a teenager. In 430 at-bats in the Sally League, Profar walked more often than he struck out (65 vs 63), an incredibly rare feat among young players. He also did everything else well, showing on-base proficiency (.390 OBP), baserunning (23/32 steals, 8 triples), and even a little unexpected power: 12 homers, .883 OPS. Heck, even his .955 fielding percentage is acceptable considering he's only recently committed to fielding at all. A real future superstar in the making, it's hard to rate this kid too highly: he looks like nothing less than a switch-hitting Justin Upton right now. He could be scary-good come 2014.
Full Scouting Report for Jurickson Profar
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Devin Mesoraco is a catching prospect who's a little late to bloom (then again, aren't they all?) in the Reds system. The 15th overall pick of the 2007 draft, Mesoraco fell off the charts for awhile after posting .260 and .228 averages in his first two full seasons of minor league ball. But a switch flipped somewhere in 2010, as Mesoraco posted a composite line of .302/.377/.587 with 26 home runs in 2010, followed by a 2011 line of 289/.371/.484 at AAA Louisville last year, complete with 15 more home runs. If the Reds seemed too eager to trade away super-prospect catcher Yasmani Grandal, there's probably no better reason than Mesoraco. He still strikes out a bit too much and can be beat by quality stuff inside, but Mesoraco suddenly looks to have very few shortcomings. He might be held back by his manager's love for veterans, but there's no catcher on the Reds' MLB roster better-suited to start in 2012. He should get the chance.
Full Scouting Report for Devin Mesoraco
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A graduate of Team USA's championship squad, Miami's Manny Machado is a well-rounded hitter who was recognized as one of baseball's best high-school shortstops in 2009. He hasn't have a lot of power yet, and there are questions about his speed, but he does have a solid-average bat and the sort of above-average footwork and soft hands that give him a decent chance of actually sticking at short. Like all shortstops from Miami, Machado is sometimes compared to Alex Rodriguez, though that might be stretching his upside a bit. So far he looks more like an idealized Yunel Escobar, and by 'future' we're talking 2014 or so. Don't be surprised if he regresses a bit coming back from his knee injury in 2011, and don't worry if he does, either. He's very young and still a long way away from MLB, so there's plenty of time for a possible break out to a higher level. Patience.
Full Scouting Report for Manny Machado
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Top Prospects 2012
Combined Ranking