Scouting Book: The Best Baseball Prospects for 2009

Baseball Prospect Rankings for 2009

Now updated for 2009's Top Prospects

Scouting Book's Top Prospects list is different than other prospect lists: we're not in a bubble, and we never sit still. We show you not just our own rankings, but also rankings from some of the other major ranking lists for each player. You can now sort, for example, by Baseball America's rankings, or view the top prospects as chosen by the wizards at Baseball Prospectus, or compare our rankings to those from Sports Illustrated. Also, unlike most lists, we don't publish a book! Our lists are updated often during the offseason, and updated daily during the pre-season to show the latest situations and adjusted for spring results. This means we're always a work in progress. We also think this means our lists are much more useful for fantasy draft purposes. If you notice a mistake or have a suggestion feel free to let us know by mailing mistakes (at) our domain name. For more on our methods, see this blog entry.

Baseball's Top Prospects for 2009

Remember: This list evolves and changes daily.

1. Matt Wieters

C, BAL

Last year it was Geovany Soto. This year, another catcher could run away with Rookie of the Year honors, at least if the minor league track record and buzz are any indicators. Baseball America's 2008 Minor League Player of the Year, Wieters can hit for both average and power, and he seems to be showing the defensive skills necessary to remain behind the plate long-term. His award-winning minor league season also helped further polish his already natural leadership skills, which should help him with a young pitching staff like Baltimore's.

Of course, if Baltimore's bullpen keeps falling apart the way it has for the last few years, the Orioles may look to Wieters other abilities. In college, he served double duty as GT's closer, taking off his catching gear for the ninth inning and bringing a 98mph fastball to the table.

While nobody knows how many games he can gear up for (the 130 he played last year more than doubled his previous high), it looks like Baltimore is going to give Wieters a shot as their everyday catcher in 2009. He may stumble early, but he won't give the job up for the next decade.

More Scouting Book Info on Matt Wieters >

SB #1 | BA #1 | BP #1 | ML #2 | SN #3 | ES #1

2. David Price

LHP, TB

Even before the Rays made him the first pick of the 2007 Amateur Draft, David Price had already run up a polished resume, beginning with the 0.43 ERA he posted as a high school senior. The Dodgers drafted him in the 19th round in 2004, but Price chose to attend Vanderbilt on scholarship instead, where he became a powerful (if overworked) anchor to the school's very strong rotation. A surprise star during the last weeks of Tampa's championship run in 2008, Price was used primarily in long relief from the bullpen, though his future is in the starting rotation. Since he remains eligible, he has Rookie of the Year potential for 2009.

While his fastball has been clocked at 95mph a few times, Price works more in the 90-92 range, relying on a high quality, high-80's slider with a very sharp bite. He has a good changeup, and rather than relying on power, he adds and subtracts with consistent, solid arm action. While he has always been able to throw strikes, Price has always had command problems within the strike zone, and has been known to tip his changeup by dropping his arm angle. If this flaw sticks when he faces major leaguers, he could give up more than his share of long balls. But add a little polish to these shortcomings, and he could be a front-line starter immediately. Expect the Rays to give him a shot early in 2009, and while they're bound to limit his innings for 2009, he'll probably have to play his way out of the rotation.

More Scouting Book Info on David Price >

SB #2 | BA #2 | BP #2 | ML #1 | SN #1 | ES #2

3. Stephen Strasburg

RHP, WAS

One of the best college pitchers of the 2009 class, righthander Stephen Strasburg mixes a high-90's (and low-100's) fastball with a highly-effective (and unusual) curveball/slider type pitch for a devastating 1-2 punch. He wasn't a strikeout pitcher early in his college career, instead focusing on pitching to contact, but his K rate has been rising steadily since 2008. While his college coach (Tony Gwynn) claims he's 'special' and could pitch in MLB immediately, most scouts would prefer he spend at least half a season in the minors before taking on the bright lights with his 103mph heat and 'ungodly breaking stuff'.

More Scouting Book Info on Stephen Strasburg >

4. Trevor Cahill

RHP, OAK

Oakland's second round pick in 2006, righthander Trevor Cahill is one of a dozen strong pitching prospects in the Oakland system. He might also be the best one. He delivers a sinking 92mph fastball with command and authority, but his loopy curveball is even better. After a nice showing at the 2008 Olympics, Cahill should get a chance to audition in Oakland sometime sometime in 2009.

While Oakland is stacked to the rafters in pitching prospects, Cahill is one of the best two or three they have right now, so he could be pitching every fifth day as early as 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Trevor Cahill >

SB #4 | BA #11 | BP #23 | ML #17 | SN #14 | ES #24

5. Cameron Maybin

OF, FLA

He might not be the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr., but this potential five-tooler has a place in the everyday lineup in the very near future, perhaps even this spring: he has the kind of leadoff tools that could finally knock Hanley Ramirez down in the batting order. Look for a good mix of average, steals and power to continue to grow, if slowly, as he nears the big lights.

More Scouting Book Info on Cameron Maybin >

SB #5 | BA #8 | BP #11 | ML #5 | SN #10 | ES #29

6. Jason Heyward

OF, ATL

Say Heyward, but don't say it just yet. A real treasure for the Braves as 2007's 14th overall pick, the left-handed Heyward has been lauded for his developing plate discipline and 30-homer power potential for a couple of years now.

He could have a future in right field for Atlanta, but with Jeff Francoeur locked in there for a long time to come, it's more likely that he'll go to left field or first base, both positions where the Braves lack a viable long-term prospect. We're penciling 2011 beside his name, but if the Braves get desperate, he could see action sooner.

More Scouting Book Info on Jason Heyward >

SB #6 | BA #5 | BP #10 | ML #3 | SN n/a | ES #3

7. Colby Rasmus

OF, STL

While often lost among the Prince Fielders and Cameron Maybins of hitting peers, Rasmus possesses a polish that few have at his level, a refinement that extends to his offensive approach, baserunning and defense. He strikes out a bit too much, but when he makes contact it's almost always solid contact: he's often compared to J.D. Drew. Of course, the Cardinals hope he comes with a less fragile set of bones. They received a lot of heat for leaving Rasmus in the minors last year, but the youngster really didn't put up the numbers to show he deserved a big-league position. He'll enter 2009 with the determination he needs to get over the last hump, though his refusal to participate in off-season conditioning probably doesn't bode for a hot start.

More Scouting Book Info on Colby Rasmus >

SB #7 | BA #3 | BP #8 | ML #10 | SN #7 | ES #12

8. Andrew McCutchen

OF, PIT

One of the best outfield prospects still in the minors, Pirate super-youth Andrew McCutchen has done nothing but hit since his debut in the summer of 2005. He jumped on the fast track with an impressive leap to Double-A at the end of 2007, and pressed hard during 2008 for a big league opportunity, spending the whole year as a 21-year old at AAA while hitting .283, swatting nine homers and stealing 34 bases. His power has come faster than people expected, which means he has a shot in the deep but talent-poor Pittsburgh field right now. Like the similar Dexter Fowler, he could break in two directions: as a top-of-the-order speed threat, or a middle-of-the-order power bat as he continues to refine his approach at the plate. If his MLB career follows his minor league ascent, expect some early struggles in the majors followed by a relentless rise to greatness.

More Scouting Book Info on Andrew McCutchen >

SB #8 | BA #33 | BP #25 | ML #12 | SN #24 | ES #18

9. Chris Tillman

RHP, BAL

Seattle's second round pick in the 2006 draft, Tillman was the Mariners' Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2007, when he rung up 139 strikeouts in 135 innings split between low-A Wisconsin and high-A High Desert. A tall, hard-thrower with a smooth, carbon-copy motion, Tillman complements a mid-90's fastball with a plus 12-to-6 curve that he uses as his out pitch.

He was traded to Baltimore as part of the 2008 package deal that sent Erik Bedard out west, and put up acceptable numbers in the Oriole system: In 28 starts for AA Bowie, Tillman was with a 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA, while maintaining a high (154) strikeout rate. Of course, he also walked far too many batters, and showed a bit of a propensity for meltdowns when things didn't break quite his way.

While his durability and work ethic remain question marks, Tillman's build and easy motion mean he still projects as at least a middle of rotation starter, though there is also bullpen potential in his easy heat.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Tillman >

SB #9 | BA #22 | BP #16 | ML #16 | SN #33 | ES #40

10. Madison Bumgarner

LHP, SF

A tall, strong lefthander, Bumgarner is one of two pitchers most likely to follow Cain and Lincecum to the Bay.

A fireballer with decent control, Bumgarner's been clocked as high as 96mph, and since he's still growing, triple digits seem within reach. His breaking pitches are not as well-developed, but they're coming, and he'll be given plenty of time and assistance with them down on the farm. A flame-throwing lefty like this is worth the time and investment, so Giant fans should try to be patient while looking to 2011 as the timeframe for his arrival as a significant cog in the rebuilt Giant machine.

The name is hard to forget. He's worth keeping an eye on.

More Scouting Book Info on Madison Bumgarner >

SB #10 | BA #9 | BP #3 | ML #6 | SN n/a | ES #6

11. Tommy Hanson

RHP, ATL

In a year split between A seasons at Rome and Myrtle Beach, Hanson zoomed up the Braves prospect chart by posting some pretty eye-popping numbers. The power righthander, already boasting a mid-90's fastball with movement, has refined his command to the point that he can place it anywhere, anytime, and this helped him go 8-4 in 18 starts for AA Mississippi last year. He mixes in a hard slider and a great curve, and his changeup is getting close to ready. He struck out 114 in only 98 innings, enough to raise eyebrows, though the 41 walks is a bit worrisome, as is his habit of leaving pitches up in the zone. So far, his stuff has been good enough to let him get away with that.

He's likely to start 2009 back in AA. Concerns about the violent recoil on his delivery might inspire Atlanta to be gentle with him, but if his workload stays manageable, he could be tested in Atlanta by the end of the year.

More Scouting Book Info on Tommy Hanson >

SB #11 | BA #4 | BP #13 | ML #24 | SN #16 | ES #9

12. Tim Beckham

SS, TB

A classic 'tools' player, BA's 2007 Youth Player of the Year Tim Beckham was a safe pick for Tampa Bay as the #1 overall pick of the 2008 draft. While he's a couple of years from breaking into the big leagues, there should be no place for him to break in quicker than Tampa Bay. He shows the hands and footwork needed to stick at short, too, unless he physically outgrows the position. If that happens, though, his bat will carry him anyway: Beckham has very quick wrists and an effortless-looking swing that should translate to 'easy power' down the road.

Beckham's Appalachian League debut was a bit disappointing last year, but as an eighteen year old getting his first taste of pro ball, even holding his head above water is a good sign. Looking deeper, his OPS increased every month, showing that he was learning quickly and making adjustments along the way. With the ascension of David Price and Jeff Niemann, he'll be Tampa's number one prospect very soon, and could be Tampa's own Hanley Ramirez-style sparkplug in fairly short order.

More Scouting Book Info on Tim Beckham >

SB #12 | BA #28 | BP #15 | ML #22 | SN n/a | ES #11

13. Mike Moustakas

3B, KC

The prodigy of Chatsworth high-school was drafted as a shortstop in the first round of the 2007 amateur draft by Kansas City. Now a line-drive hitting third-baseman, he hit 22 homers as a teenager in the Midwest League in 2008. He's a bit blocked in KC, since they're stacked in young bats and already have premium rookie Alex Gordon at third, so look for him to arrive in late 2009 or 2010, unless the Royals open up space by trading some of their other heralded prospects.

More Scouting Book Info on Mike Moustakas >

SB #13 | BA #13 | BP #21 | ML #11 | SN n/a | ES #44

14. Travis Snider

OF, TOR

Snider is a very young, very strong, and very promising prospect in the Blue Jays system who's pushing hard on the system's ceiling. Snider's rise through the Toronto system is impressive: at Lansing (Low-A) in 2007 he hit .313 with 16 home runs in 118 games. In 2008, he blew through three levels of minor league play and landed in Toronto as a September callup. He logged 73 at bats with the big league club, hitting .301 and knocking a couple of homers to boot.

He's still very young, and if his defense develops a little more he could be a viable OF or 1B. More likely, though, he'll enter 2009 as part of the new generation of young, full-time DHs. He should spend at least half the time in MLB in 2009, and he should be an everyday player by 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Travis Snider >

SB #14 | BA #6 | BP #5 | ML #7 | SN #4 | ES #5

15. Brett Anderson

LHP, OAK

Anderson, who went 11-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 105 innings split between A and double-A innings last year, was once projected to be a part of the Diamondback rotation as early as 2008. His trade the much deeper Oakland system, however, made a quick rotation spot less likely, even though he's always been one of the minor league's best left-handers. In our view, only Tampa's David Price has a glossier sheen this spring.

A more traditional lefthander than Price, Anderson works with a fastball that doesn't ever leave the low 90's, though he controls it better than Tampa's phenom. His best pitch, though, is a Kershaw-esque hammer that can be devastating. Anderson uses the deuce to frightening effect: his K-BB ratio in AA ball was over five to one (!).

While he's still very very young, Anderson really has nothing much left to prove in AA, which means that while he'll start in the minors again, it's quite possible he will see action in Oakland sometime before 2009 is over, even though he'll be only 21 years old. 2010 is the year in which he should become a fixture by the bay.

More Scouting Book Info on Brett Anderson >

SB #15 | BA #7 | BP #24 | ML #13 | SN #25 | ES #20

16. Wade Davis

RHP, TB

Jacob McGee's old rotation partner in the Midwest League, righthander Wade Davis is the proud owner of a 3:1 K:BB ratio and a 1.30 WHIP.

And since Tampa runs its team on young pitchers, good luck and gasoline fumes, he's bound to get a shot sometime in 2009, though probably only in a limited way. We like him as a starter, but some may prefer the fastball in the pen, especially after how effective David Price was in a limited relief role last year before 'graduating' to the rotation the following season. Right now, Davis might have the highest upside of any pitcher not named Strasburg.

More Scouting Book Info on Wade Davis >

SB #16 | BA #32 | BP #29 | ML #31 | SN n/a | ES #33

17. Matt LaPorta

OF, CLE

He might have been better off being drafted by an AL team in the first place. Now that he's an Indian instead of a Brewer though, he'll soon have a chance to settle in as a DH for the next 20 years. LaPorta should produce big numbers in MLB in the near future, and Cleveland's interest solved the blocking problem he had back in Milwaukee. (The fact the Indians pursued him so hard might also say something about how little confidence they have in Travis Hafner's ability to return to effectiveness.)

One of college ball's best sluggers the last couple of years, LaPorta wasn't the shiniest prospect in the bin, but his ridiculous .579 OBP in college is impossible to ignore. A power hitter who also has an exceptional batting eye, he ended his last college year in the country's top 20 in almost every category, from batting average to homers, slugging percentage to runs scored. The Indians have moved him to the outfield, which could lead to a few fielding adventures, but as long as he plays passable defense, he could break camp with the roster-depleted Indians as 2009 opens. Even if he doesn't, though, he's worth holding onto, because he'll be in the major leagues before the year is done.

More Scouting Book Info on Matt LaPorta >

SB #17 | BA #27 | BP #30 | ML #14 | SN #5 | ES #27

18. Dexter Fowler

OF, COL

Models do it. Actors do it. Why don't baseball players with impossibly unfortunate names just change them? It's not that hard. In any case, Fowler's a highly-regarded kid: Comparisons abound to other lanky outfielders with power (Andruw Jones, Andre Dawson, Torii Hunter), and he's shown flashes of five-tool greatness.

Fowler has fantastic speed and good contact skills, but needs to add some polish to his baserunning and defense. In coming years, Fowler's role will need to be determined, whether he's a middle-of-the-order hitter with power to come, or an improved baserunner destined for gap power and the top of the order. He's already very strong for his size, and a power breakout could be looming. If not, he's still a top of the order threat.

More Scouting Book Info on Dexter Fowler >

SB #18 | BA #15 | BP #12 | ML #15 | SN #36 | ES #30

19. Justin Smoak

1B, TEX

Smoak is part of a big class of mashing corner infielders (along with Alonso, LaPorta and Alvarez) pushing to break into the majors in the next year or two.

A bit of an odd pick for Texas in the 2008 draft, considering how many 1B options the Rangers already had, Smoak had enough talent (not to mention the Southern roots) to make him a good fit in Texas. With a smooth, easy swing and decent power, this switch-hitting first baseman might just be the long-term answer to the Mark Teixeira shaped hole in the Texas lineup.

Look for him to arrive in late 2010 or 2011, and arrive with a big thumping noise when he does.

More Scouting Book Info on Justin Smoak >

SB #19 | BA #23 | BP #22 | ML n/a | SN n/a | ES #15

20. Fernando Martinez

OF, NYM

A toolsy outfielder with a power stroke, F-Mart has been a top prospect for a few years, though his slow development and frequent injuries have cooled some of the early expectations. He still projects as an everyday centerfielder, though, and since he's only 20, he has room to grow. While he still struggles with lefthanded pitching, he has great bat speed and a developing eye that should allow him to hit near .300 in the long-term. If he can keep on the field and off the DL, he'll still be a very high-ceiling option in New York come 2011 or so.

More Scouting Book Info on Fernando Martinez >

SB #20 | BA #30 | BP #44 | ML #32 | SN #40 | ES #16

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Helping you track baseball prospects, sleepers and rookies. (Closers, too!)

Baseball Prospect Rankings for 2009

Now updated for 2009's Top Prospects

Baseball's Top Prospects for 2009

1. Matt Wieters

2. David Price

3. Stephen Strasburg

4. Trevor Cahill

5. Cameron Maybin

6. Jason Heyward

7. Colby Rasmus

8. Andrew McCutchen

9. Chris Tillman

10. Madison Bumgarner

11. Tommy Hanson

12. Tim Beckham

13. Mike Moustakas

14. Travis Snider

15. Brett Anderson

16. Wade Davis

17. Matt LaPorta

18. Dexter Fowler

19. Justin Smoak

20. Fernando Martinez

A First Look at the Top Twelve

Strasburg and Others Will Go Early

Angels Rookie Killed in Late-Night Hit-and-Run

Ranking the Non-Prospects for 2009

Old School List Falls In Line

Big Gorilla Hauls In, Falls in Line

Old Hands Join in With New List

Glossy Mag Lays Down the Law with Top 100 for 2009

Rising and Falling

Recently-Changed Rankings

ScoutingBook's Top 2009 Prospects