Scouting Book: The Best Baseball Prospects for 2010

MLB Baseball Prospect Rankings for 2010

As always, our Prospect Rankings change very often, to reflect the latest and most promising prospects for the new season.

The Best 26 1B Prospects for 2010

Showing 1 to 26 of 26. Overall SB ranking for 2010 shown in parentheses.

1. Justin Smoak

1B, TEX (#10 overall)

Smoak is part of a big class of mashing corner infielders (along with Alonso, LaPorta and Alvarez) pushing to break into the majors in the next year or two.

A bit of an odd pick for Texas in the 2008 draft, considering how many 1B options the Rangers already had, Smoak nonetheless had enough talent (not to mention the Southern roots) to make him a good fit in Texas. With a smooth, easy swing and decent power, this switch-hitting first baseman might just be the long-term answer to the Mark Teixeira shaped hole in the Texas lineup.

Look for him to arrive in late 2010 or 2011, and arrive with a big thumping noise when he does.

More Scouting Book Info on Justin Smoak >

SB #10 | BA #13 | BP unranked | ML #9 | SN unranked | ES #9

2. Chris Carter

1B, OAK (#28 overall)

Jack Cust, we hardly knew you. Chris Carter is an all-or-nothing, power hitting first baseman from Redwood City, California. One of the busload of prospects Oakland acquired from Arizona in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the desert, he's often confused with the other first base prospect named Chris Carter. Oakland's version is the bigger, stronger, younger and much more right-handed version.

His plate discipline hasn't developed as expected, but he did manage to hit .337 at AA ball in 2009 despite a high strikeout total. Called a 'dead red' hitter by one scout, Carter can hit mistake fastballs 500 feet... but he still flails at quality breaking balls. Oakland should give him a shot sometime in 2010, and when they do, expect a low average with many home runs and even more strikeouts.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

SB #28 | BA #28 | BP unranked | ML #37 | SN unranked | ES #33

3. Logan Morrison

1B, FLA (#32 overall)

One of the last draft-and follow picks in baseball, hulking Logan Morrison is a graduate of Albert Pujol's old community college in Missouri. With a quick inside-out swing and plus power. He destroyed high-A Jupiter in 2008 but stumbled a bit when faced with better pitching at AA Jacksonville in 2009 (.277/.411/.442). He's got reasonable speed, but his lack of glovely finesse and some limited mobility have him locked at first base for now. That's a shame since he has a cannon arm that will go to waste there: we'd prefer seeing him in right field. Either way, though, expect Florida's own Weapon X to get a long, long look in the bigs as early as 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Logan Morrison >

SB #32 | BA #20 | BP unranked | ML #25 | SN unranked | ES #21

4. Yonder Alonso

1B, CIN (#35 overall)

In addition to having the best name in the 2008 draft class, Yonder Alonso is also one of the strongest power hitters of his generation, probably the premium 1B slugger in the minors right now. After he signed too late to play more than a few pro games in 2008, Alonso fans had to wait for Hawaiian winter ball to see his stuff. Alonso finished in the top ten in most offensive categories on the islands, and followed that up with a 2009 season that saw him reach as high as AA Carolina (an acceptable .295/.372/.457 in 29 games).

He's adequate but no gold-glover in the field, which means he's probably locked at first base. While his bat is hot, the Reds choice was odd, since they already have Joey Votto just settling in for the next decade. But if he lives up to his early sheen, Alonso will force Votto into the outfield, or onto a different MLB roster, very very soon.

More Scouting Book Info on Yonder Alonso >

SB #35 | BA #45 | BP unranked | ML #30 | SN unranked | ES #76

5. Lars Anderson

1B, BOS (#64 overall)

His star has faded a bit in Boston, but the facts remain: one of these years, Big Papi will go out for a pack of smokes and never come home to Boston again. When that happens, Lars is the best bet to be the new daddy in Beantown.

A product of Jesuit High School (Carmichael, CA), the former Mr. Lars Goettlicher (yes, really) earned letters in baseball, football and basketball, hitting .489 as a freshman on his way to being named MVP. At Lancaster, in his first season, he produced at a .343/.489/.486 clip.

While he's only 22 years old, Anderson's power stroke would already be a very happy sight in Fenway... or any other park in baseball, for that matter. It may take a couple more summers for the rest of his game to catch up to his bat, but his 40-homer potential will be on display sooner or later. We'd bet on late 2010, though if the Red Sox spend big on a free agent infielder in the mean time, he could be looking at a suitcase soon.

More Scouting Book Info on Lars Anderson >

SB #64 | BA #87 | BP unranked | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES #56

6. Eric Hosmer

1B, KC (#66 overall)

He's a little older, a little wiser, and a little less powerful than Pedro Alvarez (who was, fairly, drafted two spots higher), but Eric Hosmer is probably a more advanced hitter with better fundamentals.

Whether that makes him a better prospect is a matter of taste, but the re-engineering going on in Kansas City makes him a fascinating player. Corrective eye surgery should help with the vision problems that hampered his hitting in 2009, and he could be KC's own Youkilis come 2011 or 2012.

More Scouting Book Info on Eric Hosmer >

7. Freddie Freeman

1B, ATL (#84 overall)

A two-way player converted to full-time hitter by the Braves, second round (2007) draft pick Freddie Freeman is an underrated hitting talent. He hit a first-half .285/.339/.484 in the Sally League last year, but cranked that up to .349/.418/.562 for the second half, ending up among the top ten SAL hitters in most offensive categories. He's still more of a doubles hitter than a lightstand-artist, and his defense at first base (a new position for him) is only average, but with a huge frame and quick hands he could turn into a 30-homer man in short order. He'll be in the minors awhile, probably spending 2010 in AA, but in terms of raw talent he's one of the most promising Braves prospects right now. A nice sleeper for late 2011.

More Scouting Book Info on Freddie Freeman >

SB #84 | BA #32 | BP unranked | ML #59 | SN unranked | ES #67

8. Ike Davis

1B, NYM (#96 overall)

Ike is a legitimate threat to hit 40 homers in the big leagues, and the Mets are one of the best places for a young first baseman to be right now. His refined college approach to the strike zone means he should do it without Howardesque strikeout numbers. too. One of the 2008 draft's most polished picks, Davis should be ready for MLB action in 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Ike Davis >

SB #96 | BA #62 | BP unranked | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES #64

9. Jose Ruiz

1B, FA (#118 overall)

When Jose Julio Ruiz defected from Cuba in 2009 at age 25, he was ranked as one of the league's top-rated hitters. A pure offensive threat, the fireplug-shaped Ruiz will likely be relegated to 1B or DH duties in the USA, but his bat should be able to play at the major league level very soon. A gap hitter with decent but not great power, he has a smooth, quick swing from the left side that should allow him to maintain an average similar to the .300 he traditionally posted in Cuba. While the lack of plus power might hold him back from a top tier position, his overall path should be similar to slow-burning Angel Kendry Morales, who simmered for a couple of years before breaking out in 2009.

More Scouting Book Info on Jose Ruiz >

10. Chris Marrero

1B, WAS (#130 overall)

Marrero was Washington's top pick in the 2006 draft, and rated a perfect 80 on the scouting power scale, which is tremendous in someone so young. He has a knack for missing some breaking balls by a mile, but he's still very young, so give him some time to learn a little discipline. To make up for his lack of speed, the Nats have converted the onetime OF to full time first-base status, which should also let him concentrate on hitting.

He's a bit green, but a nice sleeper for late 2010 especially given Washington's lack of long-term options at first.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Marrero >

11. Brandon Allen

1B, ARZ (#149 overall)

A hulking first baseman from Texas, Allen has serious pop in his bat. Drafted out of high school back in 2004, Allen has done nothing but grow bigger and hit baseballs farther and farther ever since. He hit .283/.337/.483 for Kannapolis in 2008, with 18 homers and 124 strikeouts in 516 ABs. While he struggled against lefties, he destroyed righthanders to the tune of a .656 slugging percentage. He squeaked out a meager .202 average in 202 at-bats with the Diamondbacks at the end of 2009, but his upside is much better than that. The four homers and seven doubles he hit in September are more indicative of his real ability.

More Scouting Book Info on Brandon Allen >

12. Anthony Rizzo

1B, BOS (#153 overall)

A gritty, strong first baseman, Rizzo defeated cancer (Hodgkin's Lymphoma) to return to action in 2009, Rizzo ended up swatting near .300 in the Sally and Carolina leagues, including a dozen home runs and 37 doubles. His terrific fundamentals and plus bat speed make him a tough out: he can make solid contact to all fields on anything close to the strike zone. He'll be 20 in 2010, but he's already zooming up the Sox depth chart. Lars Anderson might want to check his rear-view mirror.

More Scouting Book Info on Anthony Rizzo >

13. Kila Ka'aihue

1B, KC (#265 overall)

If the two Diamondback first basemen named Chris Carter confused you last year, get ready for Kila and Kala Ka'aihue. The two brothers, both first basemen, also share the same birthdate (one year apart). Kila (full name Micah Kilakila Ka'aihue) is the older, bigger and stronger player, and he's the better prospect bet so far.

The lefthanded slugger is one of the Royals hardest-hitting youngsters. He slugged .433 for Triple-A Omaha last year while waiting for a call that never came, also launching 17 home runs in a bid for attention. The Royals have no shortage of big young bats, but 'Killer' could challenge for a 1B-DH-OF spot in 2010 and he probably deserves an extended chance to keep the job.

More Scouting Book Info on Kila Ka'aihue >

14. David Cooper

1B, TOR (#276 overall)

The Blue Jays have been bereft of developing power threats recently, but they're fixing it with this move. Cooper is a high-average, high-on-base machine with significant power to all fields. He was drafted higher than expected, but the way the power bats were vanishing from the board this year, one can hardly blame the Blue Jays for reaching.

More Scouting Book Info on David Cooper >

15. Rich Poythress

1B, SEA (#284 overall)

The M's chose Poythress in round two of the 2009 draft based on his ability to hit baseballs very, very hard. He proved a bit too much for Rookie ball in 2009, so the Mariners bumped him all the way to AA, where he'll stay until he can develop enough of a batting eye to accompany his strength. His defensive shortcomings limit him to first base or DH.

More Scouting Book Info on Rich Poythress >

16. Chris Carter

1B, NYM (#291 overall)

No, this isn't (Vernon) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman traded from Arizona to Oakland for Dan Haren. This is (William) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman who was traded from Arizona (!) to Boston for Wily Mo Pena, and recently sent to the Mets to complete the dump of Billy Wagner.

This Chris Carter is four inches smaller and four years older, with the extra years adding up to more-refined skills but a lower ceiling. He's also a left-handed hitter, unlike the Earth-A version. He's a viable first base candidate, but less of a big league talent than the Carter the A's picked up. Still, the Mets lack many real 1B options, so unless they make a big trade, he could see some MLB action in 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

17. Mike Carp

1B, SEA (#300 overall)

A power hitter who swings hard and misses often, Carp has always been saddled with horrendous L-R splits. In 2008 he posted his best offensive numbers of his career (.299/.403/.471 with 17 homers in 478 ABs), though, and also improved against lefties (.257/.348/.429). He's still got some learning to do, but he's getting there.

His defense is unspectacular, of course, and he has no special baserunning ability, so Carp very much needs to keep improving at the plate, especially now that he's moving to the the American League: He used up his chances in New York, who added additional depth at 1B in last year's draft before shipping Carp to Seattle as part of the deal that netted them JJ Putz in the winter of 2008.

Right now he still projects as a reserve or platoon player, though he's young enough that he could yet blossom.

More Scouting Book Info on Mike Carp >

18. Brandon Snyder

1B, BAL (#312 overall)

A product of the same high school draft class as Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus, the less-decorated Brandon Snyder was drafted as a catcher before losing most of a year to a torn labrum. Transplanted to first base, he may have found his long-term home. He's come along slower than his classmates, but the .315 and 80 RBIs he posted last year in A ball makes him a prime candidate to step up to the AA Baysox in 2009. A power hitter who will strike out a lot, he can still contribute serious numbers with his ability to hit both fastballs and breaking pitches to all fields. If he continues to hit well at the higher level this spring, look for him to get a taste of the big leagues come September, or sooner if injuries open the way.

More Scouting Book Info on Brandon Snyder >

19. Ryan Wheeler

1B, ARZ (#319 overall)

From fifth round draft pick to Organizational Player of the Year, Diamondbacks prospect Ryan Wheeler sure had a wild ride in 2009. The rising first baseman led the Yakima Bears with a .363/.461/.538 batting line, adding 28 extra base hits. That OBP tied the all-time franchise record. Brandon Allen might have an impact in MLB sooner, but Wheeler will make the bigger splash when he lands in 2011 or so.

More Scouting Book Info on Ryan Wheeler >

20. Ryan Strieby

1B, DET (#325 overall)

A huge, hulking lumberjack of a first baseman, right-handed slugger Ryan Strieby made pretty short work of AA Erie in 2009, mashing 19 homers in 86 games and posting a .303/427/.565 line on the season (that's a .992 OPS). The average may take a bit of a dive as he moves up to the big leagues, but the power should play in Comerica. He's more than a little blocked by Miguel Cabrera in Detroit right now, so the Tigers have him working out in left field. Time will tell if he's got the skills to stick there. A hot start this spring could get him a full-time MLB job before the end of the year.

More Scouting Book Info on Ryan Strieby >

21. Cody Johnson

1B, ATL (#335 overall)

A player who showed unmatchable power at the high school level, John Johnson Jr. is a raw but fascinating prospect in the Braves system who scouts call a southern version of Justin Morneau. As a prospect, he fits into the Lars Anderson / Chris Parmalee frame of reference: a player who could be a superstar if he learns the finer points of the game, but who might also fade into obscurity if he relies on nothing but home run swings.

While Atlanta has liked him in the outfield lately, the current glut of OF in the Braves system makes Three-Jay a better fit back at his natural 1B position.

More Scouting Book Info on Cody Johnson >

22. Joe Koshansky

1B, TEX (#342 overall)

A big slugger with 35+ HR potential, he's also a little old for a 'prospect', as he'll turn 27 this year. Still, his massive, bone-rattling swings should be able to connect in a depleted Texas system soon, even if he's just a stopgap until Justin Smoak is ready.

More Scouting Book Info on Joe Koshansky >

23. Kala Ka'aihue

1B, ATL (#374 overall)

The younger of the two Ka'aihue brothers, Kala (full name Isaiah Kala Ka'aihue) is the righthanded half of the matching Hawaiian sluggers. Kala was originally drafted by Boston, but declined and was later drafted by the Braves. He's one of Atlanta's best power prospects, drawing comparisons to Andres Galarraga.

He crushed Myrtle Beach pitching in 2007 (22 homers in only 89 games) and was moved up to AA Mississippi for 2008, where he slashed .274/.417/.457 with 14 homers in 376 at-bats. He's a great sleeper, especially for as long as he quietly develops in his older brother's shadow.

More Scouting Book Info on Kala Ka'aihue >

24. Mark Trumbo

1B, LAA (#402 overall)

Kendry Morales will do his very best to help Angels' fans forget the brief glory days of Mark Teixeira, but if he can't hold up, a big slugging local boy named Mark Trumbo should be ready to step up soon. After smashing fifteen homers at AA Arkansas in 2009, he should be along pretty soon.

More Scouting Book Info on Mark Trumbo >

25. Aaron Bates

1B, BOS (#416 overall)

A third-round pick from the 2006 draft class, the 6-4 and 240lb Bates is a big, strong hitter with solid plate discipline. Aaron has plus power that's near big-league ready, but not much else. His bat-speed is suspect, which means he may flounder at higher levels if he keeps trying to hit every pitch 600ft. He'll start 2007 with the AA Sea Dogs, and he's likely to end the year in the same place: at this point he's too far down the depth chart to have much impact before 2010 or later. Because of the depth in the Sox system, Bates is a likely trade candidate, especially within the AL.

More Scouting Book Info on Aaron Bates >

26. Allan Dykstra

1B, SD (#441 overall)

Another of the rich 2008 draft class of slugging first basemen, Dykstra (no relation to Lenny and Cutter) is a textbook lefty power bat with no obvious position in San Diego, but he's bubbling over in hitting talent. He'll need a year or two in the minors to develop his secondary skills, and the Padres will need to deal with the question of his fielding position, but he projects as a solid 25-30 homer type a few years from now.

More Scouting Book Info on Allan Dykstra >

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