Scouting Book: The Best Baseball Prospects for 2008 (Sleepers Too!)

MLB Baseball Prospect Rankings for 2008

As always, our Prospect Rankings change very often, to reflect the latest and most promising prospects for the new season.

The Best 16 1B Prospects for 2008

Showing 1 to 16 of 16. Overall SB ranking for 2008 shown in parentheses.

1. Joey Votto

1B, CIN (#9 overall)

He's got a New Yawk name, but he's the first-baseman of the future for Cincinnati. A .319 hitter with 22 HR's at AA last year, he also showed good speed, notching 24 steals in a full season.

While he may make the Reds out of spring training, a midseason callup is more likely, especially considering the aged state of Cincy's veteran fielders. Votto's only obvious shortcoming is an inability to do much against southpaws: he slugged only .399 against them last year. If he patches this hole, and if manager Dusty Baker's penchant for benching rookies doesn't get in his way, he could find his way to Cincinnati next year to stay. If he doesn't, he still has a long and solid career as a platoon-player ahead of him. Of course, in Great American, that might still be enough for 30 homers.

More Scouting Book Info on Joey Votto >

SB #9 | BA #44 | BP #21 | ML #34 | SN #12 | ES #56

2. Daric Barton

1B, OAK (#20 overall)

A mediocre defender recovering from elbow surgery, and he's a top 50 prospect? That shows you how well he can hit, and in the AL, hitting is all that matters.

Keep in mind that his elbow injury was more bad luck than weakness, remember that his swing has always been thought of as moneyball-perfect, and consider the A's other prospects for 1B, and you'll realize that Oakland will give him every chance to succeed at 1B in the very very near future.

More Scouting Book Info on Daric Barton >

SB #20 | BA #48 | BP #22 | ML unranked | SN #14 | ES #38

3. Steve Pearce

1B, PIT (#31 overall)

Pearce smashed his way through the Pirates' system in just his third professional season, starting in high 'A' Lynchburg (Va.), mowing down double-A Altoona (Pa.) in May, blasting past Indianapolis in July, and receiving a call-up to visit the major league team on Sept. 1st. He hit .294 with six RBIs in his brief appearance (23 ABs) with the big club. For his phenomenal season, Pearce was recognized by BA as the Minor League Offensive Player of the Year for 2007, and by MiLB and Topps as Baseball's Overall Minor League Player of the Year for 2007.

A natural first baseman learning the outfield, Pearce will either win a platoon/bench job in the majors this year, or be sent to AAA to stay ready. By next year, or sooner in the event of an Adam LaRoche trade or injury, he could get a shot at the full-time first base job. If he tears up the majors like he has every other level, he won't lose that job for a long, long time.

More Scouting Book Info on Steve Pearce >

SB #31 | BA #89 | BP #43 | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES unranked

4. Lars Anderson

1B, BOS (#45 overall)

It won't be 2008, and it probably won't be 2009 either, but someday, Manny will be Manny somewhere else. Not long after that, Papi will go out for a pack of smokes and never come home to Boston again. When that happens, who will bring home the bacon? Don't worry, Red Sox nation: Lars will take be your new daddy.

A product of Jesuit High School (Carmichael, CA), the former Mr. Goettlicher earned letters in baseball, football and basketball, hitting .489 as a freshman on his way to being named MVP. At Lancaster, in his first season, he produced at a .343-.489-.486 clip.

While he's only 20 years old, Anderson's power stroke would already be very happy in Fenway... or any other park in baseball. It may take a few summers for the rest of his game to catch up to his bat, but his 40-homer potential will be on display sooner or later.

More Scouting Book Info on Lars Anderson >

SB #45 | BA #40 | BP #100 | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES #28

5. Justin Huber

1B, KC (#90 overall)

The Australian connection hasn't arrived in Kansas City Junction yet, but once it does, it'll shake the station. Originally drafted by the New York Mets, Huber was part of the 2004 trade for Kris Benson.

A converted catcher who could still serve as a backup there, Huber has line-drive power with very high on-base skills. He's lurking in the shadows just behind Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but he should really be considered in the same breath. He's a good one.

More Scouting Book Info on Justin Huber >

6. Shelley Duncan

1B, NYY (#92 overall)

As if all the Duncan boys aren't already confusing sportswriters, how difficult is it to juggle the two first-base prospects on the Yankees?

Shelley has never been scout-ranked as highly as cousin Eric, but his late season performance in 2007 cannot be ignored. In 34 injury-fill-in games, Duncan slugged .554 with 7 home runs. (That's 35-homers in a full season.) Against a full season, his average of one home run every 10.5 at bats in 2007 would rank him higher than Carlos Pena (10.7), Alex Rodriguez (10.9), Ryan Howard (11.3) and Prince Fielder (11.5).

Most memorably, his OPS in Yankee Stadium was an eye-popping 1.055, making him Manhattan's favorite media darling until Joba came to town.

Where the Yanks find a place for Duncan next season is anyone's guess, but he's versatile enough to slot in easily. In addition to his native 1B and his frequent DH gigs, he also appeared in a dozen games in left and right field.

More Scouting Book Info on Shelley Duncan >

7. Chris Carter

1B, OAK (#94 overall)

Chris Carter, a hard-hitting first baseman from Redwood City, California, is one of the busload of prospects Oakland acquired from Arizona in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the desert. Often confused with the other first base prospect named Chris Carter, Oakland's version is the bigger, stronger, younger and much more right-handed version.

He's a couple of years away from seriously contributing, and he's moved from being blocked by Conor Jackson to being blocked by Daric Barton (note: not good news for Carter fans), but he's got a quality bat and good plate discipline, two things that Oakland loves dearly. He could show up in 2009 or 2010 at 1B, OF or DH.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

SB #94 | BA n/a | BP #99 | ML unranked | SN #49 | ES unranked

8. Mike Carp

1B, NYM (#120 overall)

A power hitter who swings hard and misses often, Carp is also saddled with horrendous L-R splits. In 2007 he hit only .238 with just three home runs (in 151 at-bats) vs LHP.

Since his defense is unspectacular and he has no special baserunning ability, Carp needs to figure out how to hit lefties if he's ever going to be anything other than a reserve or platoon player. He's likely to get one last chance with the Mets in AAA this year, but if he does not perform, don't expect to see him on any prospect lists next season.

More Scouting Book Info on Mike Carp >

9. Eric Duncan

1B, NYY (#132 overall)

The better-known but so-far less decorated cousin of Shelley and Chris Duncan, Eric has been the Yankees 1B of the future since his draft in 2002.

While 2008 is probably too soon, he does have the bat speed, left-handed power and overall baseball skills to play in the Bronx.

More Scouting Book Info on Eric Duncan >

10. Joe Koshansky

1B, COL (#134 overall)

A big slugger with 35+ HR potential, he is also a little old for his level: 24 at AA. Visions of Kouzmanoff dance in your head when watching his massive, bone-rattling swings. As expected, though, he strikes out like a junior version of Adam Dunn.

More Scouting Book Info on Joe Koshansky >

11. Nick Evans

1B, NYM (#150 overall)

The Mets 5th round selection in the 2004 amateur draft, Evans always put up solid numbers, but really broke open in the summer of 2007. Firmly taking hold of his future as middle of the order power bat, Evans hit .286/.374/.476 in 378 ABs for St. Lucie.

His blossoming as a power threat has scouts not only relisting him over the Mets other 1B prospect, Mike Carp... they're looking at a 30-homer, 100RBI future in the middle of the Mets lineup.

More Scouting Book Info on Nick Evans >

12. Kyle Blanks

1B, SD (#185 overall)

Signed as a DFE prior to the 2005 draft, Blanks was signed for his big bat potential, and through 2007 he did nothing but live up to that destiny. An imposing hulk in the batter's box, he doesn't have much plate discipline (think Adam Dunn) but he does have a very big hot zone (think Vlad Guerrero), which means anything he gets his bat on is likely to travel a very, very long way. His fielding skills are almost completely absent, but when you can hit a ball 500 feet, nobody cares too much about your glove. The Padres will try Blanks at AA for the first time this season, and they're likely to keep promoting Blanks as long as his bat holds up. AA pitchers are likely to try to work him hard and inside to steal his power: it'll be interesting to see who wins the war over the long haul.

More Scouting Book Info on Kyle Blanks >

13. Cody Johnson

1B, ATL (#205 overall)

A player who showed unmatchable power at the high school level, John Johnson Jr. is a raw but fascinating prospect in the Braves system who scouts call a southern version of Justin Morneau. As a prospect, he fits into the Lars Anderson / Chris Parmalee frame of reference: a player who could be a superstar if he learns the finer points of the game, but who might also fade into obscurity if he relies on nothing but home run swings.

While Atlanta liked him in the outfield in 2007, the current glut of OF in the Braves system makes Johnson a better fit back at his natural 1B position.

More Scouting Book Info on Cody Johnson >

14. Chris Carter

1B, BOS (#224 overall)

No, this isn't (Vernon) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman traded from Arizona to Oakland for Dan Haren. This is (William) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman who was traded from Arizona (!) to Boston for Wily Mo Pena. This Chris Carter is four inches smaller and four years older, with more refined skills but a lower ceiling. He's also a left-handed hitter, unlike the Earth-A version. He's a viable first base candidate, but less of a big league talent than the Carter the A's picked up. He could spend some MLB bench time in 2008 or 2009 spelling Youkilis (a task we've all struggled with from time to time.)

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

15. Aaron Bates

1B, BOS (#248 overall)

A third-round pick from the 2006 draft class, the 6-4 and 240lb Bates is a big, strong hitter with solid plate discipline. Aaron has plus power that's near big-league ready, but not much else. His bat-speed is suspect, which means he may flounder at higher levels if he keeps trying to hit every pitch 600ft. He'll start 2007 with the AA Sea Dogs, and he's likely to end the year in the same place: at this point he's too far down the depth chart to have much impact before 2010 or later. Because of the depth in the Sox system, Bates is a likely trade candidate, especially within the AL.

More Scouting Book Info on Aaron Bates >

16. Michihiro Ogasawara

1B, FA (#249 overall)

In 2006, Michi lead the league in homers and RBIs, while helping lead his club to their first Japan Series crown in 44 years. A composed player and a fine fielder at both 1B and 3B, which would attract many MLB teams. As a free agent, Ogasawara does not require a posting fee, making him quite affordable.

Michihiro Ogasawara recently (and surprisingly) declared his free agency. He has received very strong offers from many Japanese clubs, but insists he intends to test the free agent market. Whether that means he wishes to pursue a major league career has not been established. At age 34, this would likely be his last opportunity. His ranking on our 'prospects' list demonstrates the value he could provide a team's lineup while playing 1B or 3B, both positions that have grown shallow in recent years.