Scouting Book: The Best Baseball Prospects for 2009

MLB Baseball Prospect Rankings for 2009

As always, our Prospect Rankings change very often, to reflect the latest and most promising prospects for the new season.

The Best 26 1B Prospects for 2009

Showing 1 to 26 of 26. Overall SB ranking for 2009 shown in parentheses.

1. Justin Smoak

1B, TEX (#19 overall)

Smoak is part of a big class of mashing corner infielders (along with Alonso, LaPorta and Alvarez) pushing to break into the majors in the next year or two.

A bit of an odd pick for Texas in the 2008 draft, considering how many 1B options the Rangers already had, Smoak had enough talent (not to mention the Southern roots) to make him a good fit in Texas. With a smooth, easy swing and decent power, this switch-hitting first baseman might just be the long-term answer to the Mark Teixeira shaped hole in the Texas lineup.

Look for him to arrive in late 2010 or 2011, and arrive with a big thumping noise when he does.

More Scouting Book Info on Justin Smoak >

SB #19 | BA #23 | BP #22 | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES #15

2. Eric Hosmer

1B, KC (#27 overall)

He's a little older, a little wiser, and a little less powerful than Pedro Alvarez (who was, fairly, drafted two spots higher), but Eric Hosmer is probably a more advanced hitter with better fundamentals.

Whether that makes him a better prospect is a matter of taste, but the re-engineering going on in Kansas City makes him a fascinating player. He could be KC's own Youkilis come 2011 or 2012.

More Scouting Book Info on Eric Hosmer >

SB #27 | BA #24 | BP #18 | ML #29 | SN unranked | ES #17

3. Lars Anderson

1B, BOS (#30 overall)

His star has faded a bit in Boston, but the facts remain: one of these years, Big Papi will go out for a pack of smokes and never come home to Boston again. When that happens, Lars is the best bet to be the new daddy in Beantown.

A product of Jesuit High School (Carmichael, CA), the former Mr. Goettlicher earned letters in baseball, football and basketball, hitting .489 as a freshman on his way to being named MVP. At Lancaster, in his first season, he produced at a .343-.489-.486 clip.

While he's only 22 years old, Anderson's power stroke would already be a very happy sight in Fenway... or any other park in baseball, for that matter. It may take a couple more summers for the rest of his game to catch up to his bat, but his 40-homer potential will be on display sooner or later. We'd bet on late 2010, though if the Red Sox spend big on a free agent infielder in the mean time, he could be looking at a suitcase soon.

More Scouting Book Info on Lars Anderson >

SB #30 | BA #17 | BP #17 | ML #25 | SN unranked | ES #7

4. Chris Carter

1B, OAK (#46 overall)

Chris Carter, a hard-hitting first baseman from Redwood City, California, is one of the busload of prospects Oakland acquired from Arizona in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the desert. Often confused with the other first base prospect named Chris Carter, Oakland's version is the bigger, stronger, younger and much more right-handed version.

He's a couple of years away from seriously contributing, and he's moved from being blocked by Conor Jackson to being blocked by Daric Barton (note: not good news for Carter fans), but he's got a quality bat and good plate discipline, two things that Oakland loves dearly. He could show up in 2009 or 2010 at 1B, OF or DH.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

5. Yonder Alonso

1B, CIN (#51 overall)

In addition to having the best name in the 2008 draft class, Yonder Alonso is also one of the strongest power hitters of his generation, probably the premium 1B slugger in the minors right now. After he signed too late to play more than a few pro games in 2008, Alonso fans had to wait for Hawaiian winter ball to see his stuff. Alonso finished in the top ten in most offensive categories on the islands with a nifty .308/.419/.510 performance.

He's adequate but no gold-glover in the field, though, which means he's probably locked at first base. While his bat is hot, the Reds choice was odd, since they already have Joey Votto just settling in for the next decade. But if he lives up to his early sheen, Alonso will force Votto into the outfield, or onto a different MLB roster, very very soon. He's one of 2009's hottest tickets, and the young Cuban must be drooling at the thought of breaking loose in Great American.

More Scouting Book Info on Yonder Alonso >

SB #51 | BA #35 | BP #35 | ML #34 | SN unranked | ES #76

6. Ike Davis

1B, NYM (#70 overall)

Ike is a legitimate threat to hit 40 homers in the big leagues, and the Mets are one of the best places for a young first baseman to be right now. His refined college approach to the strike zone means he should do it without Howardesque strikeout numbers. One of the 2008 draft's most polished picks, Davis should be ready by late 2009.

More Scouting Book Info on Ike Davis >

7. Kyle Blanks

1B, SD (#71 overall)

Signed as a DFE prior to the 2005 draft, Blanks was signed for his big bat potential, and through 2008 he's done nothing but live up to that destiny. An imposing hulk in the batter's box, he doesn't have much plate discipline (think Adam Dunn) but he does have a very big hot zone (think Vlad Guerrero), which means anything he gets his bat on is likely to travel a very, very long way. His fielding skills are almost completely absent, but when you can hit a ball 500 feet, nobody cares too much about your glove.

The Padres will give Blanks another full season at AA this year, and they're likely to push him as long as he holds up. He can be busted inside with good fastballs, but he will crush mistakes. While some people will say that Adrian Gonzalez represents a roadblock for Blanks, those same people aren't paying attention to San Diego's fire sale approach to management -- Blanks will be the Padres' starting 1B sometime in 2010.

More Scouting Book Info on Kyle Blanks >

SB #71 | BA #50 | BP unranked | ML #47 | SN unranked | ES #54

8. Chris Marrero

1B, WAS (#74 overall)

Marrero was Washington's top pick in the 2006 draft, and rated a perfect 80 on the scouting power scale, which is tremendous in someone so young. He has a knack for missing some breaking balls by a mile, but he's still very young, so give him some time to learn a little discipline. To make up for his lack of speed, the Nats have converted the onetime OF to full time first-base status, which should also let him concentrate on hitting.

He's a bit green, but a nice sleeper for late 2009, especially given Washington's lack of long-term options at first.

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Marrero >

9. Freddie Freeman

1B, ATL (#119 overall)

A two-way player converted to full-time hitter by the Braves, second round (2007) draft pick Freddie Freeman is an underrated hitting talent. He hit a first-half .285/.339/.484 in the Sally League last year, but cranked that up to .349/.418/.562 for the second half, ending up among the top ten SAL hitters in most offensive categories. He's still more of a doubles hitter than a lightstand-artist, and his defense at first base (a new position for him) is only average, but with a huge frame and quick hands he could turn into a 30-homer man in short order. He'll be in the minors awhile, probably ending 2009 in AA, but in terms of raw talent he's one of the most promising Braves prospects right now. A nice sleeper for 2012 or so.

More Scouting Book Info on Freddie Freeman >

SB #119 | BA #87 | BP #80 | ML #38 | SN unranked | ES #65

10. Logan Morrison

1B, FLA (#127 overall)

One of the last draft-and follow picks in baseball, hulking Logan Morrison is a graduate of Albert Pujol's old community college in Missouri. With a quick inside-out swing and plus power. He destroyed high-A Jupiter last year (.332/.402/.494 with 13 homers and 38 doubles), so he'll need to find some bigger boys to play with soon. He's got reasonable speed, but his lack of glovely finesse and some limited mobility have him locked at first base for now. That's a shame since he has a cannon arm that will go to waste there: we'd prefer seeing him in right field. Either way, though, expect Florida's own Weapon X to get a look in the bigs as early as September 2009, but 2010 looks better right now.

More Scouting Book Info on Logan Morrison >

SB #127 | BA #18 | BP #53 | ML unranked | SN unranked | ES #23

11. Kila Ka'aihue

1B, KC (#157 overall)

If the two Diamondback first basemen named Chris Carter confused you last year, get ready for Kila and Kala Ka'aihue. The two brothers, both first basemen, also share the same birthdate (one year apart). Kila (full name Micah Kilakila Ka'aihue) is the older, bigger and stronger player, and he's the better prospect bet so far.

The lefthanded slugger is one of the Royals hardest-hitting youngsters. He bashed .304 with 31 doubles, 20 homers and 90 RBIs at High Desert in 2007 and followed that up with an even stronger 2008 that netted him a show-me month in Kansas City, where he hit .286 and mashed a homer in 21 at-bats. The Royals have no shortage of big young bats, but Killer could challenge for a 1B-DH-OF spot in 2009, and he probably deserves an extended chance to keep the job.

More Scouting Book Info on Kila Ka'aihue >

12. Nick Evans

1B, NYM (#169 overall)

The Mets 5th round selection in the 2004 amateur draft, Evans always put up solid numbers, but really broke open in the summer of 2007. Firmly taking hold of his future as middle of the order power bat, Evans hit .286/.374/.476 in 378 ABs for St. Lucie.

His blossoming as a power threat is one of the reasons the Mets parted so easily with Mike Carp in the winter of 2008... with Evans and Ike Davis coming up the pipe, they're looking at a 30-homer, 100RBI future from the 1B position one way or the other for a long time to come.

More Scouting Book Info on Nick Evans >

13. Mike Carp

1B, SEA (#194 overall)

A power hitter who swings hard and misses often, Carp has always been saddled with horrendous L-R splits. In 2008 he posted his best offensive numbers of his career (.299/.403/.471 with 17 homers in 478 ABs), though, and also improved against lefties (.257/.348/.429). He's still got some learning to do, but he's getting there.

His defense is unspectacular, of course, and he has no special baserunning ability, so Carp very much needs to keep improving at the plate, especially now that he's moving to the the American League: He used up his chances in New York, who added additional depth at 1B in last year's draft before shipping Carp to Seattle as part of the deal that netted them JJ Putz in the winter of 2008.

Right now he still projects as a reserve or platoon player, though he's young enough that he could yet blossom.

More Scouting Book Info on Mike Carp >

14. Jake Fox

1B, CHC (#202 overall)

He's not a catcher anymore, but he's still one of the most fearsome bats in the minor leagues. With a monster all-or-nothing approach, Fox has proven he can turn on even the fastest fastball, but hasn't shown much interest in any other part of the game of baseball. (Baseball America calls super-slugger Fox 'dangerous with a bat and a glove', and that's not exactly a ringing endorsement of his defense.) But chicks dig the long ball, so Fox could get a shot in Wrigley whenever Milton Bradley first hits the DL. While it's too bad the NL doesn't have a DH position to offer him, he's got enough slugging chops that the Cubs will put up with some shaky defense for the runs he'll produce: this is the club that plays Alfonso Soriano every day, after all. A trade to an AL club could turn ramp up his value even higher.

More Scouting Book Info on Jake Fox >

15. Brandon Allen

1B, CHW (#219 overall)

A hulking first baseman from Texas, Allen has serious pop in his bat. Drafted out of high school back in 2004, Allen has done nothing but grow bigger and hit baseballs farther and farther ever since. He hit .283/.337/.483 for Kannapolis last year, with 18 homers and 124 strikeouts in 516 ABs. While he struggled against lefties, he destroyed righthanders to the tune of a .656 slugging percentage. He's still got a ways to go in the plate discipline and fielding departments before he's ready for the bigs, but when he arrives on the South Side, it should be with a great big crunching sound.

More Scouting Book Info on Brandon Allen >

16. David Cooper

1B, TOR (#224 overall)

The Blue Jays have been bereft of developing power threats recently, but they're fixing it with this move. Cooper is a high-average, high-on-base machine with significant power to all fields. He was drafted higher than expected, but the way the power bats were vanishing from the board this year, one can hardly blame the Blue Jays for reaching.

More Scouting Book Info on David Cooper >

17. Joe Koshansky

1B, TEX (#231 overall)

A big slugger with 35+ HR potential, he's also a little old for a 'prospect', as he'll turn 27 this year. Still, his massive, bone-rattling swings should be able to connect in a depleted Texas system soon, even if he's just a stopgap until Justin Smoak is ready.

More Scouting Book Info on Joe Koshansky >

18. Chris Carter

1B, BOS (#238 overall)

No, this isn't (Vernon) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman traded from Arizona to Oakland for Dan Haren. This is (William) Chris Carter, the California-born first-baseman who was traded from Arizona (!) to Boston for Wily Mo Pena.

This Chris Carter is four inches smaller and four years older, with the extra years adding up to more-refined skills but a lower ceiling. He's also a left-handed hitter, unlike the Earth-A version. He's a viable first base candidate, but less of a big league talent than the Carter the A's picked up. He could spend some MLB bench time in 2008 or 2009 spelling Youkilis (a task we've all struggled with from time to time.)

More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >

19. Mark Trumbo

1B, LAA (#239 overall)

Kendry Morales will do his very best to help Angels' fans forget the brief glory days of Mark Teixeira, but if he can't hold up, a big slugging local boy named Mark Trumbo should be ready to step up soon. After smashing .329 at A+ and .311 at AA, he'll be along pretty quickly.

More Scouting Book Info on Mark Trumbo >

20. Jeff Larish

1B, DET (#252 overall)

A big, strong corner infielder who's clearly ready for the big leagues, Tiger rookie Jeff Larish should compete for a roster spot in 2009. Finally called up in mid-2008, he filled in at first, third and DH for the injury-riddled Tigers, hitting .260 with a couple of home runs in 42 games. He won't be bumping Miguel Cabrera anytime soon, but his big bat should continue to grow in the years to come.

More Scouting Book Info on Jeff Larish >

21. Cody Johnson

1B, ATL (#270 overall)

A player who showed unmatchable power at the high school level, John Johnson Jr. is a raw but fascinating prospect in the Braves system who scouts call a southern version of Justin Morneau. As a prospect, he fits into the Lars Anderson / Chris Parmalee frame of reference: a player who could be a superstar if he learns the finer points of the game, but who might also fade into obscurity if he relies on nothing but home run swings.

While Atlanta has liked him in the outfield lately, the current glut of OF in the Braves system makes Johnson a better fit back at his natural 1B position.

More Scouting Book Info on Cody Johnson >

22. Allan Dykstra

1B, SD (#283 overall)

Another of the rich 2008 draft class of slugging first basemen, Dykstra (no relation to Lenny and Cutter) is a textbook lefty power bat with no obvious position in San Diego, but he's bubbling over in hitting talent. He'll need a year or two in the minors to develop his secondary skills, and the Padres will need to deal with the question of his fielding position, but he projects as a solid 25-30 homer type a few years from now.

More Scouting Book Info on Allan Dykstra >

23. Kala Ka'aihue

1B, ATL (#327 overall)

The younger of the two Ka'aihue brothers, Kala (full name Isaiah Kala Ka'aihue) is the righthanded half of the matching Hawaiian sluggers. Kala was originally drafted by Boston, but declined and was later drafted by the Braves. He's one of Atlanta's best power prospects, drawing comparisons to Andres Galarraga.

He crushed Myrtle Beach pitching in 2007 (22 homers in only 89 games) and was moved up to AA Mississippi for 2008, where he slashed .274/.417/.457 with 14 homers in 376 at-bats. He's a great sleeper, especially for as long as he quietly develops in his older brother's shadow.

More Scouting Book Info on Kala Ka'aihue >

24. Brandon Snyder

1B, BAL (#338 overall)

A product of the same high school draft class as Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus, the less-decorated Brandon Snyder was drafted as a catcher before losing most of a year to a torn labrum. Transplanted to first base, he may have found his long-term home. He's come along slower than his classmates, but the .315 and 80 RBIs he posted last year in A ball makes him a prime candidate to step up to the AA Baysox in 2009. A power hitter who will strike out a lot, he can still contribute serious numbers with his ability to hit both fastballs and breaking pitches to all fields. If he continues to hit well at the higher level this spring, look for him to get a taste of the big leagues come September, or sooner if injuries open the way.

More Scouting Book Info on Brandon Snyder >

25. Eric Duncan

1B, NYY (#356 overall)

The better-known but so-far less decorated cousin of Shelley and Chris Duncan, Eric has been the Yankees 1B of the future since his draft in 2002. So long, in fact, that he might be running out of time. While he does have the bat speed, left-handed power and overall baseball skills to play in the Bronx, he'll need to improve on his .250ish, 10-homer minor league seasons of late if he's going to ever arrive.

More Scouting Book Info on Eric Duncan >

26. Aaron Bates

1B, BOS (#364 overall)

A third-round pick from the 2006 draft class, the 6-4 and 240lb Bates is a big, strong hitter with solid plate discipline. Aaron has plus power that's near big-league ready, but not much else. His bat-speed is suspect, which means he may flounder at higher levels if he keeps trying to hit every pitch 600ft. He'll start 2007 with the AA Sea Dogs, and he's likely to end the year in the same place: at this point he's too far down the depth chart to have much impact before 2010 or later. Because of the depth in the Sox system, Bates is a likely trade candidate, especially within the AL.

More Scouting Book Info on Aaron Bates >

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