Baseball's Top Prospects for 2010
Remember: This list evolves and changes daily.
SS, CHC
A darling prospect in the Cubs system, Dominican teenager Starlin Castro is seen by many scouts as Chicago's future franchise shortstop. He has a soft glove, strong arm and plus range, so he should stick at the position. Meanwhile, he has the bat control and discipline to hit near-.300 while slashing line drives to all fields. His speed is only a tick above-average, and he hasn't any power to speak of, but that shouldn't matter. As long as he gets enough reps over the next season or two, he could be a regular fixture at Wrigley thereafter. Of course, that's assuming the Cubs don't panic and bring him up sooner than that.
More Scouting Book Info on Starlin Castro >
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OF, SEA
A scout's wet dream, Dustin Ackley was one of the best college hitters of the 2009 class, if not the absolute best available bat. After destroying ACC pitching as a freshman, he was taken second overall by the Seattle Mariners. While his speed and toolset might bump him up to the outfield, he's also competent at third as well as first base, a position he played in college while recovering from surgery for a full season, and the Mariners have recently experimented with playing him at second base in order to balance out their outfield-heavy farm. His defense won't make much difference, though, as it's his combination of plus contact and patience that's worth drooling about. He could replace Ichiro as Seattle's on-base machine in a few years.
More Scouting Book Info on Dustin Ackley >
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OF, OAK
A 6-6, 250lb monster back in high school, Taylor avoided an early draft by committing to Stanford. When he emerged from college, he was gobbled up by the Phillies in the same 5th round selection that netted them Ryan Howard six years earlier, and scouts see similar things in the two sluggers. After ditching his 'Stanford Swing' for a bigger and more wide open hammer, Taylor tore up the minors last year, slashing .361/.441/.554 at A-level Lakeland and .329/.380/.560 after a promotion to high-A Clearwater. He strikes out a bit too much, especially on quality breaking pitches, but his new owners in Oakland have never been afraid of that kind of hitter as long as the production averages out. As an outfielder, he has limited range, though his speed is probably average, or even a bit better than average. His strong throwing arm that suggests right field is his natural position. While his approach at the plate looks crude, he's actually a pretty polished product: he'll probably spend most of 2010 in AA and AAA, but he could get a long look in Oakland before the end of the year.
More Scouting Book Info on Michael Taylor >
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RHP, TOR
The Son of Drabek has sky high expectations but needs a year or two of seasoning before being thrown into the fire. A part of the Roy Halladay compensation bundle, he's now staring down the AL East as his future, which is a lot scarier than the NL version. Still, he has the talent, the pedigree and the work ethic. He will be ready sooner or later, and when he is he will be a good one.
More Scouting Book Info on Kyle Drabek >
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1B, OAK
Jack Cust, we hardly knew you. Chris Carter is an all-or-nothing, power hitting first baseman from Redwood City, California. One of the busload of prospects Oakland acquired from Arizona in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the desert, he's often confused with the other first base prospect named Chris Carter. Oakland's version is the bigger, stronger, younger and much more right-handed version. His plate discipline hasn't developed as expected, but he did manage to hit .337 at AA ball in 2009 despite a high strikeout total. Called a 'dead red' hitter by one scout, Carter can hit mistake fastballs 500 feet... but he still flails at quality breaking balls. Oakland should give him a shot sometime in 2010, and when they do, expect a low average with many home runs and even more strikeouts.
More Scouting Book Info on Chris Carter >
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3B, KC
The prodigy of Chatsworth high-school was drafted as a shortstop in the first round of the 2007 amateur draft by Kansas City. Now a line-drive hitting third-baseman, Moose hit 16 homers as a 20 year old in the Carolina League in 2009. He's a bit blocked in KC, since they're stacked in young bats and already have premium rookie Alex Gordon at third, so look for him to arrive sometime in 2011, unless the Royals open up space by trading some of their other heralded prospects sooner than that.
More Scouting Book Info on Mike Moustakas >
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LHP, ATL
A skilled lefthander from Vanderbilt, Michael 'Spike' Minor is a polished all-around pitcher who could add three above-average to plus pitches into the back end of a major league rotation sometime in 2010. His fastball tops out around 92mph, but its his breaking balls that will get him to the big-leagues anyway. He's not the uber-talent that schoolmate David Price was, but he's a product of the same system and it shows in his plus makeup and advanced feel for pitching. He should be ready to step into the Braves rotation come 2011 or so.
More Scouting Book Info on Mike Minor >
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RHP, ARZ
Jarrod Parker, one of the most highly-touted prospects in the 2007 draft, fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks with the 9th overall pick, and they did not hesitate. While he's still young, he shows exceptional character and makeup, which means he may be destined for the big leagues sooner than most. He draws comparisons to 2007 super-phenom Tim Lincecum, since he produces tremendous power from a smaller-than-average build. Though he doesn't have quite the same freakish ability or 102mph stuff as Lincecum, he'll likely follow a similar path anyway, as Arizona's farm managers decide quickly whether they're dealing with a future ace or future closer, and move him along accordingly. He should spend 2009 in AA, with a shot at testing the Arizona bullpen late in the year. Relief work will get him to the majors sooner than later, but if the Diamondbacks can be patient and help him along, he could be a middle-rotation starter come 2011 or so.
More Scouting Book Info on Jarrod Parker >
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LHP, COL
A smart value-pick from the 2008 draft by the Rockies, Friedrich was one of the two or three best lefthanders in the pool, as well as one of the best prep pitchers available, making him a steal at the 25th overall pick. He didn nothing but move up the charts in his first year of pro ball, either, finishing second in all of minor league baseball in strikeouts per nine innings with an obscene 12.0. In addition to crazy heat, Friedrich shows off a 12 to 6 curve and a hard, biting slider that could blossom into true plus pitches in the majors. If he has a weakness, it's his so-so changeup, but if he can refine that in the first half of 2010, he could be with the Rockies (as a backend starter or temporary relief help) before the end of the year.
More Scouting Book Info on Christian Friedrich >
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1B, ATL
A two-way player converted to full-time hitter by the Braves, second round (2007) draft pick Freddie Freeman is an underrated hitting talent. He hit a first-half .285/.339/.484 in the Sally League last year, but cranked that up to .349/.418/.562 for the second half, ending up among the top ten SAL hitters in most offensive categories. He's still more of a doubles hitter than a lightstand-artist, and his defense at first base (a new position for him) is only average, but with a huge frame and quick hands he could turn into a 30-homer man in short order. He'll be in the minors awhile, probably spending 2010 in AA, but in terms of raw talent he's one of the most promising Braves prospects right now. A nice sleeper for late 2011.
More Scouting Book Info on Freddie Freeman >
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RHP, MIN
With stuff enough to be the ace of any college staff, Kyle Gibson was hidden behind Aaron Crow in Missouri. While he's still not a Crow-type talent, the big righthander is a workhorse with a high-command fastball and the determination to grind through opposing batters inning after inning. His fastball can reach 94-95mph, but he works mainly in the 91-92 range, relying on his plus slider and above-average change to beguile batters.
More Scouting Book Info on Kyle Gibson >
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RHP, BAL
A late 2007 signee who raised eyebrows around baseball with his Olympic performance in 2008, Arrieta put up some impressive Carolina numbers last year too, leading the league in ERA and finishing 4th in strikeouts. Like many raw talents, he's succeeded so far on the strength of an overpowering fastball, a 97mph darter, so he'll need to add and refine his secondary pitches before he's ready for anything more than a relief role in MLB. Since his closest thing right now is a slider, some are angling to move him into a bullpen role. If he can handle 150+ innings and his curve comes along to be passable, he'll be one of the team's best pitching prospects entering 2010.
More Scouting Book Info on Jake Arrieta >
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2B, MLW
It's a bit cheap comparing Canadian slugger Brett Lawrie to fellow Canucks Larry Walker and Justin Morneau, but in this case the comparison is about more than nationality: Lawrie can flat-out rake, though he does it from the right side of the plate and hasn't shown the power potential of those two other lumberjacks. An all-around baseball talent with no ceiling in sight, the fact that he's played both shortstop and catcher well enough to make it onto both position lists tells you something about the special youngster. With both of those positions pretty locked down in Milwaukee, he's also been asked to learn second base, which might be his quickest path to the majors right now.
More Scouting Book Info on Brett Lawrie >
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SS, TB
A classic 'tools' player, BA's 2007 Youth Player of the Year Tim Beckham was a safe pick for Tampa Bay as the #1 overall pick of the 2008 draft. While he's a couple of years from breaking into the big leagues, there should be no place for him to break in quicker than Tampa Bay. He shows the hands and footwork needed to stick at short, too, unless he physically outgrows the position. If that happens, though, his bat will carry him anyway: Beckham has very quick wrists and an effortless-looking swing that should translate to 'easy power' down the road. Beckham's Appalachian League debut was a bit disappointing last year, but as an eighteen year old getting his first taste of pro ball, even holding his head above water is a good sign. Looking deeper, his OPS increased every month, showing that he was learning quickly and making adjustments along the way. With the ascension of David Price and Jeff Niemann, he'll be Tampa's number one prospect very soon, and could be Tampa's own Hanley Ramirez-style sparkplug in fairly short order.
More Scouting Book Info on Tim Beckham >
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3B, BAL
A high-school shortstop who impressed Dodgers by flying from Florida and talking his way into a pre-draft workout in 2005, Bell was picked up in the 6th round of the draft and converted to third base immediately. His developing power and sweet both-ways swing have scouts talking about Chipper Jones. As a very young player, he was moved slowly up the system, but he's shown power and patience at each stop. He was slugging .497 at AA Chattanooga when he was traded to the Dodgers as part of a two-player deal for closer George Sherrill. He should move quickly and fit in well in the Orioles organization. Look for him in late 2010, with a shot at taking over an everyday job in 2011.
More Scouting Book Info on Josh Bell >
45
OF, SD
Widely seen as the best high school athlete available in the 2009 draft, outfielder Donavan Tate draws comparisons to Tim Beckham for his tools-to-the-wall talent and approach. He's raw, of course, and very young, but he has a big, strong build and a swing that looks suited to major league power. It's a shame that San Diego's ballpark will hide that.
More Scouting Book Info on Donavan Tate >
46
LHP, KC
A fifth-round pick by the Royals back in 2008, lefty John Lamb has scrambled up the ladder quickly, and today ranks as one of the best pitchers in the system. After blowing away 72 rookie-league hitters in 68 innings in 2009, Lamb swept through A-ball in 2010 (posting 32 consecutive scoreless innings along the way) and ascended all the way to AA. He firmed up his spot in the Royals' future by ranking among the minor league leaders in ERA and strikeouts, where he maintained a ratio near 4:1. Scouts rave about Lamb's cool demeanor, work ethic and mound presence, and while he doesn't have a single overpowering pitch, he has three above-average ones that he can command almost at will. His fastball tops out around 93mph with good movement, and while he hasn't been throwing his high-school slider much lately, his change and curve are near major-league ready. He should be on the speed-dial for 2011.
More Scouting Book Info on John Lamb >
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LHP, KC
A flamethrowing lefthander, Montgomery was grabbed early by the Royals in the 2008 draft. So far, he's looking pretty legitimate, as he's assembled a 2.19 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 30 minor league starts, with a 48:132 ratio of walks to strikeouts. He's only 20 years old as 2010 begins, and he's a long way away from the Bigs, but any lefthander who throws 96mph is worth keeping tabs on.
More Scouting Book Info on Mike Montgomery >
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LHP, COL
The kind of big, strong lefthander that scouts fall in love with, the six-foot-six Matzek not only brings overpowering heat from the left side but flusters hitters with three different offspeed pitches to boot. A king-sized almost-ace in the making, Matzek could be the anchor of many Major League teams in the future. In Colorado, his ceiling is somewhere between Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeff Francis... but not quite yet.
More Scouting Book Info on Tyler Matzek >
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OF, NYM
A toolsy outfielder with a power stroke, F-Mart has been a top prospect for a few years, though his slow development and frequent injuries have cooled some of the early expectations. He still projects as an everyday centerfielder, though, and since he's only 20, he has room to grow. A premature outing with the MLB club in 2009 didn't go so well, but the youngster did manage to steal a few bases, hit his first home run, and generally show that he could play in a major league stadium when called upon to do so. While he still struggles with lefthanded pitching somewhat, he's also still got the great bat speed that got him noticed in the first place, not to mention a developing eye that should allow him to hit near .300 in the long-term. If he can keep on the field and off the DL, he'll still be a very high-ceiling option in New York come 2011 or so.
More Scouting Book Info on Fernando Martinez >
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